Pete Buttigieg recently said something Democrats should take very seriously heading into the midterms: winning may not be enough. The margin could matter almost as much as the victory itself.

The phrase being used is “too big to rig.” Taken literally, that can sound conspiratorial, so let’s be very clear about what we are talking about. There is no secret machine magically changing votes overnight. There is no evidence of some electronic switch that can simply flip an election from one party to another.

The concern is much more straightforward. Donald Trump and his allies have repeatedly attacked the rules and institutions surrounding elections, and a close result creates opportunities for litigation, challenges, delays and disputes that a decisive result simply does not.

That is why the size of the victory matters.

The danger of a razor-thin margin

Imagine control of the House comes down to one or two seats. Or imagine control of the Senate depends on a single race.

Suddenly, one disputed election becomes enormously important. A lawsuit in one state matters more. A delayed certification matters more. A fight over a particular category of ballots matters more. One decision involving one seat could determine which party controls an entire chamber of Congress.

Now imagine Democrats instead win dozens of additional House seats.

The situation changes dramatically. Even if Republicans successfully challenge one race, or two races, or somehow manage to create chaos around a handful of contests, it does not change control of the chamber.

The same principle applies to the Senate. If everything hinges on whether one party has 50 seats or 51, a single disputed race carries extraordinary weight. If the margin is larger, there are fewer pressure points available to exploit.

That is the practical meaning of making an election “too big to rig.”

The groundwork is already being laid

None of this requires speculating about what Trump might secretly be planning. There is plenty happening out in the open.

Trump has called for Republicans to “nationalize” voting and take over elections in certain places, even though elections in the United States are primarily administered by state and local governments. His administration has also faced scrutiny over the possibility of federal agents appearing near polling locations. The administration has said there are no plans for a broad deployment, while Trump himself has declined to categorically rule out federal enforcement activity around the election.

Meanwhile, election officials around the country are preparing for potential legal disputes, federal intervention and misinformation surrounding the midterms.

The important point is that voters do not need to imagine some fantastical conspiracy. The fights over election administration are already happening publicly.

There is also a political permission structure being built before the votes have even been counted.

Question mail-in ballots. Question the voter rolls. Question how long counting takes. Suggest Democratic states cannot be trusted. Raise suspicions about noncitizen voting. Then, if Republicans lose, an explanation for the loss has already been prepared.

We have seen a version of this before.

We know what happened after 2020

After Trump lost the 2020 presidential election, he claimed the election had been stolen despite failing to provide evidence sufficient to substantiate that claim.

He pressured Georgia officials over the state’s results. His allies backed an effort involving alternate slates of electors. He pressured Vice President Mike Pence over certification.

That history matters because the closer an election is, the more consequential these kinds of challenges can become.

We also saw a much smaller example of the power of procedural delay with Representative Adelita Grijalva. After winning her special election in Arizona, her swearing-in was delayed for 50 days. The timing was particularly notable because a petition to force a House vote on the Epstein files sat just one signature short of the 218 needed to move forward, and Grijalva had pledged to be that final signature. Grijalva later introduced legislation intended to prevent similar delays in the future.

Now imagine something like that happening when control of the House depends on one or two members.

A disputed race here, a delayed seating there, a lawsuit somewhere else, and suddenly an election decided by millions of voters becomes a battle over a tiny number of pressure points.

A larger margin makes that strategy much harder.

Lawyers are good. Voters are better.

There will absolutely be lawyers ready to respond to election challenges. Voting rights groups should be prepared. Election officials should know the law and be ready for attempts to interfere with the process.

But there is another defense available to voters themselves: overwhelming participation.

Spending the final weeks before an election endlessly refreshing polls accomplishes nothing. Assuming someone else has the election covered accomplishes nothing. House races matter. Senate races matter. Governors matter. State legislatures matter.

The more decisive the result, the less leverage there is for anyone trying to manufacture doubt around a handful of races.

A one-seat margin creates an obvious target. A 30- or 40-seat margin creates a very different problem for anyone hoping to reverse control of Congress through individual challenges.

They can still claim the election was rigged. We already know election fraud allegations do not necessarily disappear simply because the evidence fails to support them. But claiming dozens of separate elections across the country were somehow manipulated becomes increasingly difficult to turn into an actionable strategy.

The ultimate backstop

Buttigieg also raised a broader question that is worth thinking about beyond 2026: What is the ultimate backstop for democracy?

Is it Congress?

Is it the courts?

Ultimately, democratic institutions function because enough people participate in them and insist that election results be respected.

Courts can enforce laws. Attorneys can challenge abuses. Election officials can follow procedures. Congress can certify results. All of those institutions matter enormously.

But voters determine how much ambiguity exists for bad actors to exploit in the first place.

If control of Congress comes down to a single contested race, that ambiguity can become incredibly powerful. If voters deliver a decisive result across dozens of races and multiple states, the number of plausible avenues for overturning the broader outcome shrinks dramatically.

That is the real argument behind “too big to rig.”

The goal should be an election result so decisive that attempts to manufacture uncertainty cannot realistically change who controls Congress.

So what do you think? How much does the possibility of post-election challenges change the way you’re thinking about the midterms?

We’re reaching over 150 million people every month across YouTube, podcasts, Substack, and beyond. But algorithms can change. Platforms can fold. And when that happens, this newsletter is how we stay connected.

If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, please consider joining.
If you’re already paid on one platform, consider supporting us on both Substack and our website.

You can subscribe on our website and right here on Substack.

And if you’re really on fire, consider gifting a subscription—we’ve got thousands on our waiting list ready to read, watch, and fight back.

Let’s keep building.

—David

PS: Can’t contribute right now? No problem. You can support us for free by subscribing on YouTube, listening to our audio podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or become a free subscriber to this very Substack. Every bit counts.

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The United States added only 29,000 jobs in September, falling far short of the 90,000 forecasted by economists. Meanwhile, previous employment numbers for July were revised downward to show a net loss of 10,000 jobs shortly before the midterm elections.

During a recent campaign rally, Donald Trump boasted to attendees about navigating stairs without falling. He also mocked Texas Senate candidate James Talarico for being vegan, despite Talarico not being vegan.

In an interview, an Oklahoma voter directly linked Donald Trump to Jesus while claiming that Christians face widespread persecution. This perspective unfortunately reflects a political mindset shared by millions of conservative voters across the country.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has moved to reduce high-ranking general and admiral positions in the military by 20%. This reduction contrasts sharply with Donald Trump’s original campaign promises of expanding the armed forces.

Donald Trump bragged about his personal bond with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, asserting that he is the only leader Kim likes. However, past summits between the two men failed to produce any formal agreement to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

Pete Buttigieg called on Democratic voters to achieve margins of overwhelming victory in the upcoming midterm elections to neutralize potential legal challenges from Donald Trump. Winning by wide margins prevents narrow congressional contests from being disputed in courts or state legislatures.

Finally, veteran political strategist Karl Rove warned that the Republican Party is being infiltrated by bigots, explicitly describing Nick Fuentes as a Nazi. Rove also criticized Texas nominee Bo French for publishing xenophobic social media posts about college students.

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Republican-aligned super PACs are pouring over $131 million into Texas to defend Ken Paxton’s Senate seat against Democratic candidate James Talarico. This massive emergency spending compensates for Paxton’s fundraising deficit in a state Republicans have held since 1988.

Donald Trump faces record low approval ratings on economic issues, with only 17% approving of his handling of cost of living. A majority of voters blame his specific policies, such as tariffs and the war with Iran.

Democratic leaders are directing national donors and prominent surrogates to support Scott Colom in his Senate challenge against Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. While Mississippi remains historically Republican, expanding national political maps have encouraged Democrats to test competitive boundaries in deep red states.

During a White House event celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month, Donald Trump made several unusual claims to attendees. He stated “only a Hispanic” could survive falling off his ballroom construction site and that 97 automobile assembly plants are currently being built in the United States.

Cameras continue to capture Donald Trump appearing to struggle to stay awake during public events. The footage has drawn fresh questions about his stamina, echoing the “Sleepy Joe” criticism he once used against Joe Biden.

Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly denounced Donald Trump, declaring that the MAGA movement is dead. After leaving Congress and the Republican Party, Greene accused Trump of betraying his base on foreign intervention.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tried to rally the troops during a speech by using insults, slurs, and quoting scripture. Hegseth also announced the creation of a new Office of Religious Affairs at the Pentagon that will report directly to the Defense Secretary.

Finally, a major measles outbreak in Pennsylvania has led to nearly 1,000 confirmed cases and five deaths. Falling vaccination rates and conflicting public health messaging from administration officials have raised fears that the United States could lose its official measles elimination status.

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Tennessee’s lethal injection drugs fail in botched execution, Trump will visit red states ahead of the midterms, Trump’s AI chatbot turns on him, and much more...

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I first want to express how grateful I am that so many of you supported this book, whether by pre-ordering, ordering in the first week, or simply sharing a post about the book. It all makes a difference.

As many of you know, I did not write this book just to be on the New York Times Bestsellers list. I wrote Pay Attention because I believe the way algorithms and media incentives are increasingly shaping what we see, what we believe, and even how we interact with each other is one of the defining issues of our time.

But making the bestseller list matters because it puts this book, and more importantly these ideas, in front of an audience far beyond the people who already watch the show or follow me online.

And I don’t take for granted how difficult it is for an independent show like ours to do something like this. We don’t have a massive media company behind us or an enormous promotional machine. What we have is an audience that has supported this work for years and showed up once again when it mattered.

This is now my second book to make the New York Times Bestsellers list, and I am incredibly proud of that. But more than anything, I’m grateful to all of you who made it possible.

If you bought the book, pre-ordered it, told a friend about it, shared one of our posts, came to an event, or supported it in any other way: thank you.

You did this.

And now, hopefully, a lot more people will Pay Attention.

— David

P.S. if you are near the Springfield, Massachusetts area, I will be doing an event THIS SATURDAY, October 3rd with Jessica Tarlov. Click here for all of the details. Hope to see you there!

Former special counsel Jack Smith testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee regarding his federal investigations into Donald Trump. Smith defended his decision to pursue charges against Trump despite pushback from Republican senators.

During a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Republican Senator Eric Schmitt suggested that former special counsel Jack Smith committed perjury over text messages referencing the Hawks. However, the exchange actually referred to the Iowa Hawkeyes basketball team playing against Maryland rather than the Atlanta Hawks.

Audio obtained from a private fundraiser reveals Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton admitting to donors that a midterm convention associated with Donald Trump damaged Republican polling numbers. This statement directly contradicts public assertions made by Trump, as Paxton faces a competitive race.

Donald Trump directed federal agencies to use the term “super intelligence” instead of “artificial intelligence” in official documents. Trump explained his reasoning by stating that the word “artificial” implies fake technology.

At a White House event with technology executives, Donald Trump fielded questions about a new voluntary agreement for AI safety. Trump described the accord as morally binding while also making bogus claims about the midterm convention viewership numbers.

Donald Trump hosted top technology executives to discuss the expansion of data centers and AI infrastructure. Facing questions about public opposition to these facilities, Trump argued that self-regulation by technology corporations is sufficient and asserted that communities welcome data center developments.

Finally, Hilary Shae, a licensed and certified speech-language pathologist who specializes in concussion and neurological disorders, joins us to discuss signs of neurological impairment in Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell.

On today’s bonus show:

How AI is changing campaign advertising, a Google co-founder is spending $100 million to defeat California’s wealth tax, Flock Cameras are moving from roads to the sky, and much more...

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The conversation also turns to AI and how it could make an already messy information environment even harder to navigate. David shares the recent experience of discovering a YouTube channel using an AI clone of his voice, prompting a discussion about impersonation, misinformation, and what happens when people can no longer easily tell what’s real. Throughout the conversation, Katie and David dig into many of the ideas at the heart of Pay Attention, from who is competing for our attention to how that competition is changing us and what it means for the future of media and politics.

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A new Change Research survey shows Democrat David Jolly leading Republican Byron Donalds by two points in the Florida governor race. Donalds recently removed endorsements and references to Donald Trump from his campaign website.

House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed that widespread local opposition to AI data centers is the result of a Chinese influence campaign. However, Republican voters and officials like Texas Governor Greg Abbott oppose these facilities due to concerns over surging utility bills, noise, and heavy water usage.

Video footage from an Oval Office event shows Donald Trump repeatedly closing his eyes and nodding off while Energy Secretary Chris Wright speaks about an Iowa steel plant. Despite similar public incidents, White House press corps members have failed to ask questions regarding the president’s stamina.

House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that Republicans will maintain their exact legislative strategy if they retain control of the House of Representatives. Johnson specifically praised Medicaid rollbacks, which the Congressional Budget Office projects will increase the uninsured population by 7.5 million people.

During an Oval Office media appearance, Donald Trump criticized Canada as one of the worst countries and asserted Lake Ontario was renamed Lake America. He also doubled down on his promise to issue $5,000 tariff checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms.

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt returned to campaign outreach, accusing Democrats of seeking to abolish private property. She announced that Donald Trump plans to campaign for Republican candidates across the country almost daily throughout October.

Finally, Dmitri Mehlhorn, an attorney, Democratic strategist, and co-founder of the Atoll Society, joins us to discuss the possibility of Donald Trump running for a third term and the risks of artificial intelligence.

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The Supreme Court chooses its next cases, OpenAI scraps its new model release over safety concerns, Tennessee is set to execute a woman for the first time in 200 years, and much more...

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Potential candidates for the 2028 Democratic primary are already preparing early strategies, with announcements expected shortly after the midterms. The field features prominent governors like Gavin Newsom, progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Democratic candidates are surging in prediction markets and national polling ahead of the midterms. Market odds on Kalshi reflect growing voter dissatisfaction driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, rising fuel prices, and Republican spending legislation that reduces Medicaid and SNAP funding.

Democratic Representative Steve Cohen has introduced 26 new impeachment articles against Donald Trump covering war conduct, domestic troop deployments, and emoluments violations. While the Republican-controlled House will not advance the resolution, it establishes a framework for congressional oversight if Democrats take back the House.

Donald Trump delivered a series of alarming statements during multiple interviews over the weekend, asserting that the country has the “best poverty” and claiming a brief summit with Xi Jinping lasted two days “if you think about it.” The remarks highlight an increasing reliance on extreme superlatives regardless of the underlying topic.

When asked whether artificial intelligence poses existential risks, Donald Trump focused entirely on the industry’s economic size and financial investment rather than addressing safety or regulatory concerns.

Donald Trump was heckled at the Presidents Cup in Chicago. the moment underscored a stark contrast between unscripted public reality and the carefully managed bubble of his presidency.

Finally, recent videos circulating online have fueled unverified rumors about Donald Trump’s breathing and possible use of leg braces. This intense reaction highlights how lack of transparency invites public scrutiny.

On today’s bonus show:

Trump refuses to spend money appropriated by Congress, Trump blocks CNN from Air Force One, the White House runs taxpayer-funded Trump propaganda ads, and much more...

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During a visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping, Donald Trump broke presidential protocol by greeting him at the airbase. Trump then guided the foreign leader around White House grounds to show off his newly installed granite walkway and helipad.

Donald Trump capped off Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit with a formal state dinner in the East Room alongside tech executives. Pro-democracy protesters demonstrated loudly outside while Trump invited dinner attendees to walk through the unfinished $400 million White House ballroom.

Donald Trump revoked White House press credentials for CNN and several other media outlets. Then he complained on Truth Social that the network was deliberately boycotting his summit with President Xi Jinping.

Tucker Carlson publicly criticized Donald Trump’s military strikes against Iran during an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep. Carlson argued that entering the conflict was foolish and asserted that cabinet members should invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office.

Finally, a recent Emerson College poll revealed Democrats hold an 11% lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. Independent voters favor Democrats by 29 points, prompting several Republican candidates to remove references to Donald Trump from their campaign materials.

On today’s bonus show:

A right-wing commentator says “man the F up” on higher gas prices, the Education Department got much less efficient after budget cuts, and much more...

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The Texas Department of Public Safety failed to send tens of thousands of voter registration records to county registrars, creating a massive backlog right before the state deadline. State officials claim that incomplete records caused the error and have advised affected voters to submit provisional ballots.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of political podcast audio shows that conservative hosts have dramatically reduced their mentions of Donald Trump while liberal podcasts have maintained steady coverage. The sharp drop in commentary accelerated as the Iran war ramped up and Trump’s approval numbers worsened.

Donald Trump personally met Chinese President Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews with a military flyover, a twenty-one gun salute, and a full ceremonial red carpet. Trump extended lavish honors to the authoritarian leader despite regularly criticizing democratic allies like Canada and France.

After the White House banned CNN, MS NOW, and Politico, major television networks boycotted the presidential press pool in protest. Although a federal judge ordered access restored, the administration continues to bar excluded reporters from events.

Senator Mitch McConnell declined to answer verbal questions from reporter Desiree Townsend, offering only a wave and a peace sign during a recent encounter. The incident calls into question the senior senator’s ability to fulfill his official duties.

Senior White House official Peter Navarro publicly questioned whether Trump administration officials should continue appearing on Fox News. Navarro accused the network of betraying the administration, particularly following the departure of host Maria Bartiromo.

Republican Senator John Kennedy publicly acknowledged that Congress has failed to address cost-of-living issues despite controlling both chambers. Some local party leaders appear to be relying on reducing polling places rather than persuading swing voters.

Finally, Melania Trump claimed in a Fox Business interview that Donald Trump works continuously from morning until evening with high energy levels. Host Taylor Riggs suggested working mothers relate to the first lady balancing family duties with state dinner preparations.

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The RNC chair struggles to explain why people should vote Republican, an update on the Michigan Senate race, and much more...

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First, thank you.

I know I’ve talked about Pay Attention a lot over the last few weeks. You’ve heard me ask you to preorder it, tell friends about it, and help us make the launch as big as possible.

I promise I’m not going to keep bombarding you with book promotion. But I have one final ask, because we are so close.

Based on last week’s New York Times bestseller list and what our publisher is estimating, Pay Attention may be only five or six spots away from making the list.

My first book, The Echo Machine, made the New York Times bestseller list, which was incredible. But in publishing, the second book is notoriously harder. The novelty is gone, expectations are higher, and doing it twice is a much bigger challenge.

And somehow, we are within striking distance.

The first week of sales is our best opportunity to close that gap, and this is where I need your help.

If you’ve been planning to buy Pay Attention but haven’t yet, please do it now. If enough of you who have been waiting pick up a copy this week, it could genuinely be the difference between making the list and just barely missing it.

And if you already bought the book, I want to say a huge thank you. Leaving a review, telling a friend, sharing the book online, or buying a copy for someone else can all help keep the momentum going.

Of course, the bestseller list isn’t why I wrote Pay Attention. I wrote it because I believe the battle over our attention, and the algorithms and media incentives increasingly shaping what we see and believe, is one of the defining issues of our time.

But since we’ve come this far, I would really, really like to finish the job.

👉 Get your copy of Pay Attention

Thank you for supporting the book, the show, and everything we’re building together. I genuinely could not do this without you.

—David

Addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Donald Trump advocated for rebranding artificial intelligence to “superintelligence” while highlighting his domestic agenda. Turning to foreign policy, Trump openly questioned whether to annihilate Iran or “drive them into hell.”

Donald Trump hosted a meeting with world leaders in New York where he wandered through subjects including the 2024 election and the Iran war. Trump issued threats that he could attack Iran so fast that heads would spin.

Marco Rubio appeared on television to defend rising fuel costs as national average diesel prices reach a record $6.52. Rubio argued that prices would have soared to $18 under different leadership without offering any supporting evidence.

Mitch McConnell recently returned to the Capitol following a fall, hospitalization, and three-month recovery period to vote on critical legislation. This week, news cameras captured an aide holding an umbrella over Mitch McConnell as he remained silent when reporters asked if he is fit to work.

Donald Trump attended a public meeting in New York and repeatedly asked where Marco Rubio was while the Rubio was sitting inches away. After Rubio raised a hand to point out his location, Trump joked about leaving him in Cuba from an aircraft carrier.

Donald Trump attacked reporter Kaitlan Collins on social media after she appeared at the United Nations General Assembly for CNN. The president called press coverage treasonous and criticized federal judge Timothy Kelly for presiding over an ongoing media access lawsuit.

Donald Trump posted a long statement responding to First Amendment lawsuits filed by major news outlets regarding White House credentials. The president openly argues that press organizations reporting negative news should be denied entry because critical stories damage national security.

Finally, a bipartisan survey conducted in part by Donald Trump’s longtime pollster revealed a shift in voter sentiment within Alaska. The findings indicate growing concern over economic issues, placing a traditionally secure state into a competitive midterm race.

On today’s bonus show:

Stories from David’s travel and book events, and much more...

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