EDITORIAL: Why Joe Biden Will Win (hypothetical)

A thought experiment that steel-mans the case for President Biden's path to reelection.

Last week, I presented the case that Donald Trump will win the election in November. As I wrote in the editorial, this was merely a thought experiment. We don't know who will win the election, and it depends on all of us going out and voting this fall. But I wanted to show that one can make a persuasive case that Trump is going to win. Today, I’m going to steelman the case that President Joe Biden will win re-election, making just as persuasive and obvious a case for Biden's victory in November.

Polling

Let's start with polling. The criminal conviction of Donald Trump has given Joe Biden a slight bump in the polls, making the popular vote polling essentially a wash. Bien is still down in several swing states but within striking distance. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast predicts Biden winning in about half of scenarios, which disproves the right’s view of Trump being a shoo-in.

Importantly, Biden doesn’t need to win all the states he won in 2020 to get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Biden has a margin of error that Trump does not. For instance, Biden could lose Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—states he won in 2020—yet still win the election if he holds Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that a majority of Independents think Trump's guilty verdict was correct, and the same amount believe he should end his candidacy. Another poll from Morning Consult finds that 49% of independent voters believe Trump should drop out of the race due to his conviction on 34 felony counts. Trump's criminality will remain on voters' minds as we approach sentencing on July 11th and the other three criminal trials if they occur before the election.

Incumbency and Previous Elections

Another reason Biden is likely to win is the incumbency advantage. In recent US history, it’s become the norm for presidents to get re-elected. Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton were all two-term presidents.

Since Trump’s win in 2016, Republicans have faced a series of electoral setbacks. In 2018, they lost the House after the blue wave. In 2020, Trump and Republicans lost the presidency and Senate. In 2022, the expected red wave didn’t materialize, and Republicans just barely took control of the House of Representatives. The trend continued in 2023, with Republicans underperforming even in red states like Kentucky and Ohio.

This is also the first time Trump’s name will be on the ballot in a general election since the Capitol riots of January 6, 2021, which 55% of Americans consider an “attack on democracy that should never be forgotten.”

Debates

Next, we have the debates. Historically, debates have done little to affect the outcome of a race. However, this time might be different due to Republicans setting low expectations for Biden. They have repeatedly claimed Biden is too old and senile to speak publicly, but he has consistently performed well.

This strategy backfired during Biden’s two debates with Trump in 2020 and his State of the Union speech earlier this year. If Biden continues to perform adequately, he might actually get a boost from his performances.

Economy

Now let’s discuss the economy, often the most crucial aspect of presidential elections. By conventional economic metrics, the economy is strong, giving Biden a solid platform to run on. The stock market continues to hit all-time highs and unemployment remains at 4%. While inflation was high, it has normalized to 3.3% and the US outperformed peer nations in warding off higher prices.

Biden deserves some credit for the country's strong recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The goal is for Biden and his surrogates to communicate this effectively to voters, especially since half of Americans wrongly believe the US is currently in a recession.

Abortion

Another issue motivating Democrats and many independents is abortion. Polls show that 60% of Americans believe abortion should be legal. Abortion rights are being rolled back in states across the country, and this has not helped Republicans in recent elections. Abortion will be on the ballot in Florida and may be on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, helping to drive voter turnout in these crucial states.

Third Party and Independent Candidates

Lastly, third-party and independent candidates could impact the race. Trump has struggled more with protest votes than Biden. For example, Nikki Haley received a significant portion of the primary vote even after dropping out. In contrast, Biden faced a campaign to vote “uncommitted” in Michigan over his handling of the Israel/Gaza conflict, but it only garnered 13%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a strong independent candidate, seems to draw more votes from Trump than Biden. Since Biden won in 2020, Trump needs to claw back some states, and RFK Jr. might make that harder for Trump.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while no prediction is certain in such a close race, there are compelling reasons to believe that Biden has a clear path to victory in November. From polling and incumbency to the economy and key issues like abortion, the factors favoring Biden’s re-election are substantial. As we approach November, it is crucial for voters to stay informed and engaged in the electoral process.

Biden can absolutely win this thing. However, there is another case to be made, one that favors Trump. Watch this video to see the case for why Trump will win: