EDITORIAL: Why Trump is PANICKING over Kamala replacing Biden

Unlike Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has multiple paths to victory

It's been roughly three weeks since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, endorsing Kamala Harris, who has now officially emerged as the Democratic nominee. Harris has quickly capitalized on this momentum, raising over $200 million in just the first week of her campaign—an astonishing two-thirds of which came from first-time donors who had not contributed to Biden's campaign. The day after Biden announced his decision, Harris shattered records with an $81 million fundraising haul, the highest 24-hour total in presidential campaign history. This surge has revitalized the Democratic Party, with Harris embodying the fresh energy many Democrats felt was missing. However, the question remains: can Harris sustain this momentum and, more crucially, can she defeat Donald Trump? The answer, as of now, remains uncertain.

Before Joe Biden exited the race, his polling against Donald Trump was increasingly dire, particularly in the critical swing states that had secured his victory in 2020. According to the Real Clear Politics average as of July 16th, Biden was trailing Trump in every key battleground: losing Arizona by 5.8%, Georgia by 3.8%, Wisconsin by 2.9%, Michigan by 2.1%, Nevada by 5%, and Pennsylvania by 3.8%. These swing states are crucial, as the electoral college often hinges on their outcomes. Interestingly, despite Biden's struggles, down-ballot Senate candidates in these same states were outperforming their MAGA opponents by significant margins.

The grim polling data likely influenced Biden's decision to step aside, especially after his aides presented him with internal polling showing his lead had evaporated not only in swing states, but also in traditionally blue states like New Mexico and Virginia.

Now, with Kamala Harris stepping into the race, early indicators suggest she may be faring better against Trump than Biden did. Her campaign has already made history with record-breaking fundraising, a strong signal of enthusiasm. Although her approval rating was only slightly higher than Biden's, at 39.6% according to FiveThirtyEight (since becoming the nominee, her approval rating has increased to 41.1% as of August 9th), a Morning Consult poll more recently showed her favorability at 50%.

Encouragingly, polling suggests that Harris has made notable gains in all the swing states where Biden was previously trailing Trump. For instance, Trump’s lead in Arizona has narrowed to 2.8% from 5.8%, and in Georgia, it’s down to 0.6% from 3.8%. Harris has even flipped Michigan, now leading Trump by 2%, a state where Biden was previously behind by 2.1%. Additionally, Trump’s lead has diminished in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

These figures, based on some polls conducted before Biden’s exit, likely understate Harris’s current standing against Trump. More recent polls offer an even brighter outlook for Harris. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from late July shows Harris leading Trump by 11% in Michigan and by 2% in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Although Trump still holds narrow leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and Georgia remains a toss-up, Harris’s campaign is clearly competitive. With the Democratic National Convention and potential debates still ahead, there is ample opportunity for Harris to build further momentum and solidify her position in these crucial states.

There are currently a few paths electorally that could deliver Kamala victory in 2024. The first, and most likely path, would be to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This is what the electoral map might look like under those circumstances:

If Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania but loses Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, the margin of victory will be razor thin, but she will win the presidency and defeat Donald Trump. 

A second path to victory is the Sun Belt Path, where Kamala wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Here is what the electoral map might look like under those circumstances:

Based on what we see in the polling today, it’s unlikely that Kamala will lose all three Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But if she did, this is still a path to the presidency for her.

A third path would be if Kamala wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina but loses Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Here’s what the map would look like under those circumstances:

One very interesting scenario would come up if Kamala won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but lost Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and the Omaha district in Nebraska, which would result in a 269-269 tie. This would force a contingent election in the House, where Trump would almost certainly win since Republicans almost always have more House delegations. That makes this a scary scenario and highlights the importance of winning the Omaha district of Nebraska. Here’s what the map would look like under those circumstances:

The main takeaway here is that Kamala has multiple paths to victory, whereas based on what the polling told us about Joe Biden, he needed to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in order to win a second term because he was so far behind in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.

There are several early indicators that Kamala Harris could be a formidable opponent to Donald Trump in the upcoming election. A Fox News poll conducted from July 22–24 showed Harris with a higher approval rating than Trump in crucial states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. According to ABC News/Ipsos, Democrats are more enthusiastic about Kamala Harris than Republicans are about Donald Trump—a reversal of the dynamic seen with Biden. A CNN survey indicates that Harris has a four-point lead over Trump among registered voters aged 18-34, marking an 11-point improvement from Biden’s performance with this demographic. Similarly, an Axios poll highlights that Harris is significantly more popular with younger voters than Biden was, and they are more likely to support her.

While these are promising signs for Harris, the race remains highly competitive. Trump could still win a second term, and the Harris campaign cannot afford to become complacent. Kamala herself has acknowledged being the “underdog” in this race, a sentiment echoed by the reality that even if polls showed her leading in every swing state, the campaign must continue to push aggressively.

It’s crucial that the Harris campaign not take the support of younger voters for granted, especially when it comes to policy. Harris should run on a few bold, progressive policies to galvanize support, alongside her strong rhetoric against Trump. So far, her speeches suggest that reproductive freedom will be a central issue, but there’s room to expand the conversation. As a Senator, Harris co-sponsored Bernie Sanders’ free college legislation, supported the Green New Deal with AOC, and proposed sweeping tax cuts for the middle class through the LIFT Act. Reviving these proposals could bolster her appeal to progressives.

While we shouldn’t underestimate Trump’s chances, we also shouldn’t discount Kamala Harris’s ability to win. Her 2020 presidential campaign showed that she can generate momentum, particularly when she leans into progressive stances. With three months to go until the election—a lifetime in politics—there are still many opportunities for Harris to solidify her standing, from the DNC to the debates. Republican attacks on her have so far been largely ineffective, and making her the nominee instead of Biden increasingly appears to have been the right decision.