EDITORIAL: Will Trump go to prison over felony conviction?

The former president awaits sentencing after being found guilty by a New York jury on 34 counts of falsifying business records

The last few weeks have been a political whirlwind, with Joe Biden delivering a lackluster debate performance that ultimately resulted in him passing the torch to Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump coming within centimeters of losing his life in an assassination attempt. With everything going on, it’s reasonable to have forgotten that Donald Trump awaits being criminally sentenced over election interference and that the former president may end up in prison.

Originally scheduled for July 11th, the sentencing was delayed by Judge Juan Merchan following the Supreme Court's controversial ruling on presidential immunity. This decision provided Trump's legal team with additional time to argue that the ruling might impact the New York verdict, potentially leading to a new trial or dismissal of the case.

Though it remains uncertain whether it will happen at all, as of now, sentencing is scheduled for September 18th. This editorial explores the likelihood and appropriateness of such a sentence for the former president.

On May 30th, Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records by a New York jury. Each of the 34 counts carries a maximum prison sentence of four years, theoretically amounting to 136 years in prison. However, the reality is far more nuanced. Sentences for similar charges in New York typically run concurrently rather than consecutively, with a maximum cumulative sentence of 20 years for Class E felonies. For the 78-year-old Trump, a 20-year sentence would effectively be a life sentence, but realistically, he might face something between six months to two years if incarcerated at all.

The question of whether Trump will actually serve prison time is contentious. An ABC News interview with 14 lawyers yielded divided opinions: five believed a prison sentence was likely, seven thought it was unlikely, and two saw it as a toss-up. To understand the potential outcomes, we must examine the reasons Judge Merchan might choose either to imprison Trump or to opt for alternative penalties.

Several factors could weigh against Trump being sentenced to prison. Historical data shows that only about 10% of falsifying business records cases in New York result in prison sentences, suggesting a tendency towards leniency for first-time offenders convicted of non-violent crimes. Despite his extensive legal battles, Trump has never before been convicted of a criminal offense, and New York's sentencing guidelines often favor leniency for first-time offenders. At 78, Trump's age presents practical and moral challenges in imprisoning an elderly individual, particularly for non-violent offenses. Furthermore, as a former president and public figure, Trump's status minimizes the risk of flight or evasion. The logistical challenges of imprisoning a former president, including Secret Service protection and heightened security needs, would demand substantial resources and coordination. The timing of Trump's sentencing, just months before the 2024 election cycle, raises concerns about perceived political motivations, and any decision to imprison him could be seen as an attempt to influence public opinion or disrupt his political ambitions. Additionally, Judge Merchan has already expressed reluctance to imprison Trump, citing his status as a former and possibly future president. Even if Trump receives a prison sentence, he would likely remain free pending appeal, making it unlikely he would be in jail before the 2024 election, and if elected president, further delays and appeals could extend this timeline by another four years.

However, there are compelling reasons why Trump might be sentenced to prison. This case of falsifying business records is arguably the most significant in New York's history, potentially impacting the 2016 election outcome. The severity of the crimes might place this case within the 10% that warrant incarceration. Throughout the trial, Trump has shown defiance, repeatedly violating a gag order and demonstrating zero remorse. His continued claims of a rigged case against him reflect a lack of respect for the court, possibly influencing Judge Merchan to impose a harsher sentence. For Trump, fines and probation may not serve as effective deterrents. If the judge aims to hold Trump accountable in a meaningful way, incarceration might be the only viable option.

In addition to imprisonment, Judge Juan Merchan has several other sentencing options at his disposal. A suspended sentence would allow Trump to avoid prison on the condition of no further offenses and compliance with court-imposed conditions. This approach acknowledges the seriousness of his actions while providing a framework for behavior monitoring without immediate incarceration. House arrest could limit Trump's movement and freedom while allowing him to continue certain activities, including his political campaign. However, this option poses logistical challenges, especially if Trump is re-elected. Community service might require Trump to engage in beneficial activities, such as volunteering for public projects or charitable organizations. However, this could inadvertently boost his public image, potentially aiding his election campaign. Trump could be fined up to $170,000, but this amount is insignificant for a billionaire. Thus, a fine alone would not constitute meaningful punishment. Probation would involve regular reporting to a probation officer and adherence to specific conditions, such as travel restrictions or participation in rehabilitation programs. However, enforcing these conditions could be challenging if Trump returns to the White House.

As September 18th approaches, the nation watches closely, aware that the sentencing of a former president is unprecedented and fraught with complexities. Whether Trump serves time in prison or receives an alternative penalty, the decision will have far-reaching implications, shaping not only his future but also the nation's political future.