There’s a familiar pattern with authoritarian leaders when reality turns against them. The economy stumbles, the data looks bad, and instead of addressing the problem, they attack enemies, sow conspiracies, and try to rewrite the story entirely. This week’s grim jobs numbers put Donald Trump right into that playbook.
The new labor market data isn’t just bad, it’s some of the weakest of his presidency. The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent for the second month in a row. The three-month average is now just 29,000 jobs, with June revised down to show the economy actually lost 13,000 jobs — the first negative month since December 2020. There are now about 200,000 more people looking for work than there are available jobs. Wages are also cooling, with real wage growth trending down.
Most leaders would treat this as a wake-up call. They’d be in meetings with advisers, revisiting economic priorities, and telling the public how they plan to turn things around. Trump’s instinct was to log on to Truth Social and go after Jerry Nadler, rail about Jeffrey Epstein, and take potshots at Jerome Powell.
The Numbers He Doesn’t Want to Talk About
The August report is a full-blown warning sign. The manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs in August after losing 2,000 in July and 17,000 in June. That’s part of a longer decline going back decades, but it has accelerated under Trump, especially as his on-and-off tariff regime has injected uncertainty into supply chains and capital investment. Manufacturers themselves are now openly calling for an end to the endless tariff drama, saying they need stability to hire and invest. This is particularly relevant in the context of Trump’s promises to bring back manufacturing jobs; the opposite is happening.
The service sector, which makes up most of the economy, is still expanding slightly, but hiring has shrunk for the third straight month. Jobless claims are rising. And inflation is ticking up, creating the dangerous mix of slowing growth and rising prices. This is pushing towards stagflation territory.
None of this happened in a vacuum. Tariffs have acted like a small-scale version of the pandemic supply shock, raising costs while reducing output. Combined with weakening demand, that’s a recipe for exactly the kind of slowdown we’re now seeing.
From Economic Weakness to Conspiracy Land
Instead of confronting any of this head-on, Trump pivoted to political enemies and conspiracy theories. His Nadler post read like a personal revenge diary, celebrating the congressman’s retirement and rehashing decades-old disputes. His Epstein post was a sprawling attack on Democrats, accusing them of befriending Epstein, traveling to his island, and “taking his money” while insisting their concern for victims is fake. He called the entire thing “another Democrat hoax” meant to distract from his “legendary” success.
This is more than deflection. It’s a loyalty test for his supporters — a way of framing any criticism or bad news as part of an orchestrated plot, so that believing the jobs numbers means siding with the enemy.
The Self-Inflicted Part
Much of this economic weakness is the direct result of Trump’s own choices. His tariffs have disrupted trade without delivering the promised manufacturing boom. His combative approach to the Federal Reserve has created market uncertainty. And his decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — accusing the agency of “rigged” data — has undermined the credibility of economic reporting at the exact moment the country needs transparency.
The Fed is now almost certain to cut interest rates at its September meeting, with markets giving a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point cut and a smaller chance of a half-point cut. Rate cuts might soften the blow, but they can’t undo months of policy-driven instability.
Why the Authoritarian Playbook Works Until It Doesn’t
For now, Trump’s base will accept the narrative. They’ll share the Epstein rants, mock Nadler, and dismiss the jobs report as fake news. This is how the authoritarian style works: keep your supporters emotionally engaged, keep them angry at someone else, and you can get them to overlook what’s actually hurting them.
But reality has a way of intruding. Lost jobs, slower wage growth, and higher prices can’t be explained away forever. You can’t insult Jerry Nadler into bringing back 200,000 missing jobs. You can’t distract your way out of layoffs. And you can’t make people feel secure about the economy when their paychecks are shrinking in real terms.
When personal experience starts to outweigh rhetoric, the deflection game stops working. That’s when leaders who have spent years denying problems find they’ve done nothing to fix them.
A Moment of Choice
Friday’s numbers could have been a moment for Trump to change course. He could have acknowledged the slowdown, brought in credible advisers, and taken steps to stabilize the economy. Instead, he chose to lean on conspiracy theories, attack opponents, and insist that the “real numbers” will somehow arrive a year from now.
If history is any guide, we already know which path he’ll stick with. And that means the economic damage — much of it self-inflicted — will keep piling up while the president’s attention stays locked on the next feud, the next insult, and the next distraction.
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It truly boggles my mind that people are so obsessed with trump that they can not see reality. How much hate, misogyny, bigotry, etc do these cult members possess? I am so glad that I have a mind of my own. It’s a crying shame that everyone has to pay because of one man’s actions.
I live in the U.K., we have our own economic problems,many of which owe their genesis ( like the USA) to the out sourcing shift of production in cheap wage economies.
However I want to thank David for his clear and easily understandable explanation of the problems facing the American economy, it was a joy to read, especially as he managed to avoid the sweary insult filled rants, even though they are justified, that start to become tedious from over use and detract from the main message that is so important.