Is the Epstein scandal Trump's Nixon moment?
How presidential scandals destroy legacies
As Donald Trump’s second term becomes engulfed by the growing scandal surrounding the "Epstein files," it’s time to ask whether this could ultimately break his presidency—or at least his legacy.
To be clear, it won’t end Trump’s presidency. There’s no likely path to his removal, no matter what the files show. But it could be a legacy-defining moment for Trump.
The parallels to past presidential downfalls are striking, and the lessons from history suggest we may be witnessing an inflection point.
Recent developments have intensified scrutiny around Trump's ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. New polling shows Trump’s approval rating falling to 37%, driven by a sharp decline among independents. The Epstein scandal is making an already unpopular president even more toxic—and there’s no sign it’s slowing down. The administration’s response—including reported Justice Department meetings with Ghislaine Maxwell and increasingly heated attempts at deflection—has only fueled more questions about obstruction and a potential cover-up.
Notably, even half of Republicans now say they believe the Trump administration is trying to cover up the scandal.
Nixon's Watergate: The Gold Standard of Presidential Scandals
Richard Nixon's downfall began with what seemed like a minor break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in June 1972. What made Watergate historically significant wasn't the initial crime, but the cover-up that followed. Nixon's presidency unraveled over two years as investigations revealed:
Systematic abuse of presidential power
Obstruction of justice at the highest levels
A culture of secrecy and paranoia within the White House
Loss of institutional Republican support
The tipping point came when the Supreme Court forced Nixon to release the infamous White House tapes, revealing his direct involvement in the cover-up. Facing certain impeachment and removal, Nixon ultimately resigned as it became clear he would otherwise be impeached and convicted. Watergate established the template: it's not the crime, it's the cover-up that destroys presidencies.
Andrew Johnson's Impeachment (1868)
Johnson became the first president impeached by the House, primarily over his defiance of Congress during Reconstruction. He survived removal by a single Senate vote, but emerged as a lame duck president with no political capital. His case shows that even surviving impeachment can effectively end a presidency's effectiveness.
Iran-Contra and Reagan
Ronald Reagan weathered the Iran-Contra scandal despite evidence that his administration illegally sold arms to Iran and diverted funds to Nicaraguan rebels. Reagan's survival strategy—claiming ignorance while taking responsibility for his administration's actions—allowed him to maintain plausible deniability while appearing presidential. The scandal damaged his legacy but didn't end his presidency.
Bill Clinton's Impeachment
Clinton survived his impeachment over the Monica Lewinsky affair and perjury charges, largely because the economy was strong and the public viewed the scandal as primarily personal rather than an abuse of presidential power. His approval ratings actually rose during impeachment proceedings, showing that presidential survival often depends more on public perception than legal technicalities.
In retrospect, this fiasco does not loom as large over Clinton as, for example. Watergate looms over the legacy of Nixon. As a curious aside, Bill Clinton was president decades ago but is still younger than Donald Trump.
Biden Dropping Out in 2024: When Reality Becomes Undeniable
Joe Biden's political career effectively ended not with a scandal in the traditional sense, but with a single moment that took three more weeks to fully come to fruition. The June 27, 2024 presidential debate exposed what many had whispered about privately, that Biden no longer had what it took to run a national campaign, making Americans and elected Democrats questions whether he could carry out four more years as President.
Unlike traditional scandals that unfold over months or years, Biden's downfall was swift and brutal. Between June 27 and July 21, Biden went from “likely the best shot to defeat Trump” to dropping out after losing the confidence of Democrats. Within weeks, facing pressure from Democratic leadership and donors, Biden announced he would not seek re-election. Despite a historically successful presidential term, Biden dropping out will hold a large place in his presidential legacy.
Could this be different for Trump?
After nearly a decade of hoping the next thing would be “the thing” that destroys Trump, the Epstein scandal is different, for a few reasons:
It won’t end his presidency, but it might destroy his legacy
It involves child sex trafficking, a more lurid and nauseating sort of scandal than has affected other presidents. Allegations involving sexual misconduct, particularly with minors, carry a moral weight that transcends partisan politics (We don’t actually know what the files say about Trump)
It seems to be affecting Republicans, too. As mentioned earlier, most Americans want the Epstein files released, and even half of Americans believe the Trump administration is covering up the scandal
The Historical Pattern: Three Stages of Presidential Scandal
Presidential scandals typically follow a predictable pattern:
Initial Revelation: The story breaks, often through investigative journalism
The Cover-Up Phase: The administration attempts damage control, often making the situation worse
The Accountability Moment: Either the president survives (Clinton, Reagan) or faces removal (Nixon) or dropping out of a race (Biden)
The Epstein scandal appears to be transitioning from stage one to stage two, with the administration's increasingly desperate attempts at narrative control suggesting they recognize the existential threat this poses.
The Watergate Question
Could the Epstein scandal become Trump's Watergate? The historical precedent suggests several key factors will determine the outcome:
Republican Unity: Nixon fell when Republicans abandoned him. Trump's survival depends on maintaining GOP support.
Public Opinion: Sustained low approval ratings create political space for Republicans to distance themselves. This could hurt MAGA in the 2026 midterms and 2028 general election.
New Revelations: Like Watergate, the drip-drip of new information could prove more damaging than any single revelation.
Institutional Response: Whether Congress, the courts, and career government officials fulfill their oversight roles.
The next few months will likely determine whether Trump joins the small club of presidents who left office in disgrace, or whether he becomes another leader who proves that in American politics, survival often depends more on loyalty than law. History suggests that scandals of this magnitude rarely disappear—they either destroy presidencies or permanently define them.
It's rarely the crime itself that brings down presidents—it's the cover-up, the lies that follow, and the moment when even loyal allies can no longer defend the indefensible. The Epstein scandal may be approaching that inflection point.
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We must make sure that Epstein IS Trump’s Nixon moment. Our survival depends on it. We FINALLY hit on Trump’s Achilles heel.
The problem here is that not only are we saddled with the most extreme and shameless psychopath ever to disgrace the office of President, but the country itself has become jaded to the point where few people are shocked by anything that happens, no matter how foul. Negative poll numbers don't mean much. They'll only wound the animal a little. In the end, it will come down to the loyalists in the inner circle and whether or not they think the bruised and bleeding behemoth is still capable of carrying out their various fascist agendas, and whether their own solipsistic survival needs will supersede their fear of him. If so, there will likely be some sort of internal coup and he'll be forced to step down (perhaps citing health reasons) but still manage to spin it as a victory ("I nobly sacrificed myself for the good of the country," etc.) If not, well, then we're all stuck on this endless downhill ride for many years to come.