New poll shows Trump in total freefall

New polling shows Trump is dragging the GOP toward a historic midterm disaster

There is a number in the newest CNN poll that should have Republican candidates quietly updating their resumes.

That number is 58 percent.

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A clear majority of Americans now say that Donald Trump’s first year back in office has been a failure. Not underwhelming or mixed, an absolute failure.

That alone would be bad enough. But the same poll shows Trump’s job approval sitting at just 39 percent.

This is not a vibes problem. This is historically disastrous territory.

What history says happens next

There is a well-documented pattern when presidents head into midterms with approval ratings below 50 percent, and it is brutal for their party.

According to long-term data analyzed by Gallup, when a president is under 50 percent approval going into a midterm election, the president’s party loses an average of 37 seats in the House of Representatives.

That is not the worst-case scenario, that is the average.

Even under normal conditions, the president’s party usually loses around 25 House seats in midterms. When approval drops below 50 percent, that number jumps dramatically.

Republicans are not looking at a narrow loss. If these numbers hold, they are staring down a potential bloodbath.

The economic promises that fell apart

One of the reasons these numbers are so bad is that Trump’s core economic promises are collapsing in real time.

Prices were supposed to go down. They have not.

Trump claimed mass deportations would raise wages, create jobs, and lower housing costs. None of that is happening. Cost of living remains high. Housing remains unaffordable. Wages are not suddenly surging.

Voters notice when promises fail this completely, and they are reacting accordingly.

Digging deeper into the poll makes the situation even worse.

Only 36 percent of Americans believe Trump is focused on the right priorities. Roughly one third think he even cares about people like them.

A majority say Trump has gone too far in abusing presidential power and attempting to strongarm institutions.

That combination matters. You have anger over economic pressure layered on top of anxiety about a president who appears reckless and out of control.

That is how midterm wipeouts are born.

The House & Senate

If these numbers persist, the House of Representatives is in serious danger for Republicans.

A Trump approval rating under 40 percent is not survivable in competitive districts. Suburban seats. Swing districts. Newly flipped areas. All of them become vulnerable.

This is exactly the kind of environment that produces a blue wave. But it does not happen automatically. It only happens if turnout follows the sentiment.

The Senate is more complicated.

Only one third of senators are up for reelection every two years, which means outcomes depend heavily on the map. And right now, the Senate map is not particularly favorable to Democrats.

Even with strong anti-Republican sentiment nationally, Democrats could still struggle in key Senate races due to geography and candidate quality.

That means Republicans could potentially hold the Senate even while losing the House.

Even if Republicans manage to keep the Senate, losing the House would fundamentally alter Trump’s presidency.

Major legislation would be dead on arrival. Democrats would regain investigative power. Oversight would return. Pressure would increase.

Trump is deeply focused on his legacy. A Democratic House would give Democrats leverage to slow, block, and expose some of the most damaging elements of his agenda.

Impeachment is not guaranteed, and it may not go anywhere. But accountability would return in meaningful ways.

The stakes could not be more defined

There is a lot riding on 2026.

The polling so far paints a bleak picture for Trump and for Republicans. A president with a 39 percent approval rating and a majority of Americans calling his term a failure is not setting his party up for success.

If these numbers hold, Republicans are not heading toward a normal midterm loss.

They are heading toward a reckoning.

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