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Early voting in the 2026 midterms has passed 50 million ballots, with records in Minnesota, New York, and Utah. The surge has Republicans raising concerns about what the numbers mean, even though high early turnout does not by itself say who is winning.

Donald Trump was told Alaska’s Republican attorney general wants his Justice Department’s election lawsuit dismissed, and somehow heard it as an invitation for a federal takeover. The same stretch of remarks included the reflecting pool event and Trump’s claim that he has a concept of a deal with Canada.

Donald Trump stopped a Florida rally to wet a towel and wipe his eye, then immediately started warning about what people would say about his health. The clip itself is minor, but the reaction shows how fast any health moment becomes a fight.

Donald Trump went to Iowa to close the deal for Republicans and instead talked about football being boring, commented on Ashley Hinson’s weight, and told an invented story about a child named Tim. The rally was supposed to be a closing argument, and almost none of it was about the election.

Asked for his final message to voters, Donald Trump declared that the poverty numbers are the single best. That sits awkwardly next to his 2024 promises to cut prices in half and polling showing voters overwhelmingly disapprove of his handling of the cost of living.

James Comer said it is a big possibility that Mary Peltola would not be seated if she wins Alaska’s Senate race, and Tim Scott refused to say he would accept a certified result. Even entertaining the idea of blocking a certified winner would be a major escalation.

Substack has launched a dedicated midterms hub, bringing together election forecasts, key races to watch, and analysis from political writers and experts across the platform.

Explore Substack's Midterms Hub

Jon Ossoff is arguing that Democrats should use a midterm victory to deliver oversight, healthcare, and an end to corruption. A Democratic Congress could subpoena, investigate, and block nominees, though its power to force policy would still be limited.

Donald Trump is furious that his former lawyer Alina Habba landed a deal reportedly worth more than $50 million with the family of a man he pardoned. His reaction to a reporter asking about war with Iran, in the same stretch, was very different.

Finally, Donald Trump can read, but a long record of accounts describes a president who resists reading and prefers everything delivered verbally. A post-literate presidency leaves an audience that rarely checks the written record with almost no way to verify what it is told.

On today’s bonus show:

Haley Stevens endorses a Republican in the Michigan Senate race, a researcher watches hundreds of midterm ads, voters decide 140 ballot questions around the country, and much more...

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