The “Affordability President” meets a gas price surge

Middle East tensions are pushing oil higher and threatening another spike in everyday costs

Mar 18, 2026

Gas prices are climbing again, and the economic consequences of the Trump administration’s foreign policy decisions are beginning to show up where Americans feel them most: at the pump.

Just weeks ago, the national average for gasoline was around $2.73 per gallon. Now it has jumped to roughly $3.84, a spike of about 40 percent in a short period of time. And analysts expect the increases may not be over.

The reason is not mysterious. It is the ripple effect of a growing conflict in the Middle East and the global energy disruptions that come with it.

War and the price of oil

The immediate driver behind the spike is instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical chokepoints in the global energy system.

Roughly a third of the world’s oil supply moves through that narrow waterway. When tensions escalate in the region, energy markets react quickly because even small disruptions there can ripple through the entire global economy.

At the same time, liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar are being disrupted, putting roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply at risk. Taken together, these developments have triggered sharp reactions in the oil market.

A conflict with no clear timeline

Another factor contributing to market volatility is the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the conflict itself.

Initially, the administration suggested the military operation would last only a few days. That estimate quickly shifted to several weeks. Now, officials are acknowledging that the timeline could stretch even further.

And the reality is that the United States does not fully control how long a conflict like this lasts.

Iran could retaliate in a variety of ways, whether directly against U.S. interests or through regional proxies. Any escalation would further destabilize energy markets and extend the economic consequences far beyond the initial operation.

If the conflict drags on for several months or longer, analysts warn that oil and gas production disruptions could begin to occur. At that point, prices would not just rise incrementally. They could surge.

Why gas prices affect everything else

Higher fuel costs rarely stay confined to gas stations.

Transportation is built into the price of nearly every consumer good. Groceries, for example, must be transported from farms or processing facilities to warehouses and then to retail stores.

When diesel and gasoline become more expensive, the cost of shipping increases. Those higher costs eventually show up in store prices.

That is why spikes in fuel prices tend to cascade through the entire economy. Food becomes more expensive, consumer goods become more expensive, and even services that rely on transportation begin to rise in price.

If gas were to climb to roughly $5 per gallon, that would represent a massive increase in transportation costs across the economy.

The political question

There is also an obvious political dimension to all of this.

During previous administrations, fluctuations in inflation and gas prices were routinely blamed on the president in power. Rising costs were framed as evidence of economic mismanagement, while falling prices were celebrated as proof of effective leadership.

Now the situation is reversed.

The current surge in energy prices is closely tied to geopolitical decisions made by the Trump administration. The question is whether voters will assign responsibility in the same way they did in previous election cycles.

It is too early to know how the public will respond. But if fuel prices continue rising and those increases begin pushing up the cost of groceries and other essentials, the political consequences could arrive quickly.

For now, the message from energy markets is clear.

Expect gasoline prices to continue climbing. And expect the broader cost of living to follow.

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