The quiet coup happening in plain sight

A presidency can topple democracy without a single tank in the street.

Before we get into it: if you’re receiving this via email, thank you. You’re already subscribed. If you’re not, now is the time.

Is Donald Trump’s coup happening right now? What if we are living through the coup right now and nobody realizes it? The best evidence that Donald Trump would attempt a coup is that he already did. Think back to January 6th, which was not a one off tantrum. It was an organized attempt to stay in power after losing an election.

It failed, but Trump certainly learned from it. And here’s a “fun fact” that isn’t fun: studies show the biggest predictor of attempting a coup is having attempted one before. If you’ve done it once, especially if you faced few consequences, you’re more likely to try again. So we should look honestly at what’s happening in 2025 and ask: is a future coup looming over the horizon… or is it already underway?

Power Without Congress

Consider the basics. The government is officially shut down. Congress isn’t passing laws. They’re not swearing in Adelita Grijalva. The Senate can’t move anything. The House is barely functional. And somehow Donald Trump is still governing by decree.

We’re hearing talk of deploying troops to Venezuela—a move that, under the Constitution, requires congressional authorization, which Trump is plainly not going to seek.

At the same time, we’re seeing attempts at mass firings and layoffs of federal workers, some reportedly escorted out without due process or proper termination despite civil service laws designed to prevent partisan purges. And while Congress is locked out, the administration is spending taxpayer money like it’s Monopoly cash: hundreds of millions of dollars for Kristi Noem’s new private jets and executive orders rerouting agency budgets.

Demolition is underway at the White House. This kind of work would normally need layers of approvals, never mind Congress. The legal problem is Civics 101: Congress holds the purse strings. Congress declares war. Congress oversees the executive branch. If Congress is paralyzed and Trump acts anyway, he is effectively ruling without checks or balances.

The Shutdown-as-Strategy

That is arguably a form of a coup. The defense from Trump and his allies is always the same: “If Democrats would just reopen the government, then fine.” It’s the perfect setup. Create chaos, then claim things are so chaotic you have to ignore the rules. That’s not dysfunction; it’s a strategy.

By freezing Congress, Trump has sidelined the one major legislative body that could stop a lot of what he’s doing. It’s a loophole: if no one else can act, the president acts alone. And legacy media, corporate media, and Republicans mostly shrug.

The Paperwork Coup

This isn’t a coup with tanks in the streets. It’s a paperwork coup. Bureaucratic. Almost boring—until you realize the rule of law has quietly left the building. A norm breaks, people adjust, and pretty soon the abnormal feels routine: “That’s weird, but I guess this is how politics works now.”

We’ve had ten years of that. We now have an administration denying due process and brushing aside authorization for military action. The list is long. We’ve gone from “unprecedented” to “normal,” even though it’s not.

How a Paperwork Coup Works:

• Ignore or sidestep authorizations that normally require Congress.

• Purge the nonpartisan civil service through fear and “loyalty,” not merit.

• Reroute money with executive actions while the purse-holders are sidelined.

• Announce “emergencies” that never quite end.

• Make it all look boring so most people tune out.

How Democracies Actually Die

When democracies stop being democratic, it’s rarely one dramatic moment where everyone agrees, “Well, that’s it.” It’s a death by a thousand cuts—small technical violations that grow larger, then larger still. Hungary didn’t collapse overnight. Erdoğan didn’t seize Turkey in a day. Systems were chipped away until nothing remained to protect.

Trump is applying the same model, whether consciously or not, with better branding: red hats, “make America great again,” the promise that only he can fix it.

The Wrong Question

We need to be open to the possibility that this is the coup. Not wild and violent like January 6th suggested, but procedural. A paperwork coup. A quiet coup.

And that may be exactly why it works—because few recognize it as a coup while it’s happening. We’ve been asking the wrong question: not “Will Trump try another January 6th?” but “Why would he need to?” He’s figuring out how to do it slowly and in plain sight—a court order ignored here, a norm shredded there. By the time most people realize it, it won’t be the start of a coup. It might be the end. That should terrify every one of us.

What you can do right now

• Stay engaged. A checked-out public is the oxygen a quiet coup needs.

• Vote in every election on the ballot, not just the marquee ones. The people who administer the rules matter as much as the people who write them.

• Talk to your community about what’s happening in plain language. This isn’t inside baseball.

• Practice your civic muscles. Learn how to organize, attend local meetings, and support watchdog groups that litigate and document abuses.

• Be ready for peaceful mass action if lines are crossed. Know where you’d go, who you’d go with, and what your limits are.

The worst outcome is waking up to say, “Whoops, we missed the coup,” only to find we’re at the end of it—and the power grabs have become irreversible.

---

We’re reaching over 150 million people every month across YouTube, podcasts, Substack, and beyond. But algorithms can change. Platforms can fold. And when that happens, this newsletter is how we stay connected.

If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, please consider joining.
If you’re already paid on one platform, consider supporting us on both Substack and our website.

You can subscribe on our website and right here on Substack.

And if you’re really on fire, consider gifting a subscription—we’ve got thousands on our waiting list ready to read, watch, and fight back.

Let’s keep building.

—David

PS: Can’t contribute right now? No problem. You can support us for free by subscribing on YouTube, listening to our audio podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or become a free subscriber to this very Substack. Every bit counts.