The State of the Union vs. the state of reality

As Trump prepares to take the podium, here’s what the facts say about the America he’s about to spin.

Tonight, Donald Trump will step up to the lectern in the House chamber and deliver his State of the Union address.

And if past is prologue, he will attempt to rewrite reality in real time.

He will describe strength where there is instability. He will claim prosperity while working families are still crunching numbers at the grocery store. He will speak of unity in a country that feels, to many Americans, more divided than at any point in recent memory.

So before the speech even begins, it’s worth grounding ourselves in what is actually true.

The record matters

Trump has a long record of promises that never materialized.

He promised a sweeping health care reform plan. The “beautiful” replacement never appeared. Americans are still rationing medications, still navigating medical debt, and still trying to decipher insurance fine print.

He promised lower costs. Families are still staring at rent, food, and utility bills that strain their paychecks.

He promised stability. Chaos has followed him through two campaigns and now two presidencies.

That context matters tonight. Because the State of the Union is not just a speech; it is an attempt to define reality. And if you don’t start with facts, it becomes easy to get swept up in rhetoric.

Expect the language of power

We should also be clear about the tone to expect.

There will likely be attacks on judges and the media. There may be loyalty tests. There will be praise for strongmen abroad and casual talk about expanding executive authority. Perhaps even flirtations with suspending rights in the name of “order.”

This is how modern authoritarianism operates. Not with tanks in the streets, but with the normalization of power grabs and cruelty. With language that reframes aggression as strength and dissent as disloyalty.

Meanwhile, Americans are focused on something far more concrete.

They want affordable health care. They want groceries that do not wipe out half a paycheck. They want immigration enforcement that does not terrorize entire neighborhoods. They want accountability for crimes, regardless of party affiliation. They want detention camps closed if they are wasteful and abusive. They want money spent on improving their lives, not inflaming culture wars.

That is the real state of the union.

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To watch or not to watch

Some elected officials are boycotting tonight’s address. Some media figures are doing the same. Many viewers have decided to tune out entirely.

That is a legitimate choice. Strategic non-participation can be a statement.

My view is different.

The president’s State of the Union is inherently newsworthy. It is the most formal articulation of presidential priorities. It signals legislative strategy, exposes rhetorical direction, and ignoring it does not make it irrelevant.

If your concern is ratings, there is a practical reality here. Watching through independent media does not boost corporate cable numbers. In fact, it shifts audience share away from them and strengthens alternative coverage.

Observing power does not validate power and analyzing rhetoric does not endorse it.

The chamber tells a story

There is enormous news value not only in what Trump says, but in what happens inside the chamber.

Who stands. Who remains seated. Who claps enthusiastically. Who hesitates.

Body language between Democrats and Republicans will reveal internal fractures, party discipline, and political fear. Are Republicans fully aligned? Are there visible cracks? Are Democrats unified in response?

Sometimes the camera tells a more honest story than the speech itself, especially when the person delivering it has a long record of dishonesty.

Stay disciplined

If you do watch, discipline matters.

When Trump lies, and he will, resist the urge to repeat the lie just to negate it. Repetition breeds familiarity, and familiarity can feel like truth.

Instead, state what is true.

If he describes a booming economy, talk about families struggling with rent and food.
If he frames immigration raids as purely about safety, talk about communities traumatized by aggressive enforcement.
If he claims historic legislative victories, look at what has actually passed and who has benefited.

Clip the spectacle if necessary, then smother it with facts.

Trump thrives on spectacle. The job of serious observers is to focus on substance: healthcare, affordability, civil rights, and accountability.

No speech can erase the lived reality of millions of Americans.

Tonight

I will be live streaming the address with a pre-show and post-show analysis. We will take your thoughts and questions. It is, after all, a community event.

We will also have a State of the Union bingo card, because sometimes a little gallows humor helps us get through what we are about to hear.

Join at 8 p.m. Eastern / 5 p.m. Pacific if you’re watching.

And if you are choosing not to, I respect that as well.

Either way, the goal is the same: stay grounded in reality, stay focused on what actually affects people’s lives, and refuse to let rhetoric replace truth.

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—David

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