Trump’s Gen Z Support Is Collapsing at Record Speed
A 42-point reversal reveals how fleeting the manosphere-driven surge really was
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A political shift that almost never happens
We have been talking for months about Donald Trump’s diminishing support among young voters, but the newest data shows something even more dramatic than expected.
This is not a slow erosion. It’s a collapse.
According to new polling highlighted by CNN, Donald Trump’s net approval rating among Gen Z voters has fallen from plus ten in early 2025 to minus 32. That is a 42-point swing in roughly one year.
Swings like this almost never happen in American politics. Public opinion usually moves slowly, especially within large demographic groups. This kind of shift is extraordinary, and it demands an explanation.
Gen Z was decisive in 2024, and then everything changed
In the 2024 election, younger voters surprised analysts. Gen Z narrowed the traditional Democratic advantage, helping Trump perform unusually well for a Republican candidate, particularly among young men.
At the time, Trump and his allies framed this as proof that the Republican brand had expanded. They claimed the party had cracked the youth vote.
That narrative has now completely fallen apart.
New data shows that Gen Z party identification has swung sharply back toward Democrats. The Democratic advantage among Gen Z has more than tripled, representing the largest shift of any demographic group in the electorate.
It is a clear reversal.
The Manosphere Effect has worn off
One major factor is the role played by the manosphere in 2024. A number of young voters were not deeply engaged with politics. They were influenced instead by podcasters and online personalities who pushed Trump late in the campaign.
Figures like Joe Rogan and Andrew Tate helped funnel disengaged audiences toward Trump, often without serious scrutiny of policy or consequences. Some of these voters simply did not know what they were voting for.
Now, that pipeline has broken down.
The same influencers who helped normalize Trump for young audiences have begun backing away or openly criticizing his administration. When that push stopped, the support it generated evaporated just as quickly.
Economic reality is setting in
Another major reason for the shift is economic reality.
Gen Z voters are entering a job market defined by high living costs, stagnant wages, student debt, and instability. For many of them, things are not getting easier. They are getting harder.
Young voters are not wrong to associate those conditions with the current administration. Economic pressure hits younger workers first and hardest, and it cuts through ideology very quickly.
This is not just theoretical, it’s personal.
On top of economic concerns, Trump’s positions on climate change, reproductive rights, and immigration have pushed many young voters away.
These issues matter deeply to Gen Z, and they do not become less important with time. If anything, they become more salient as people enter the workforce, start families, and plan for the future.
The idea that young voters would simply grow out of these concerns has not held up.
Why this is a nightmare for republicans
The danger for Republicans is not just Trump himself; Trump is not running again.
The danger is what this means for 2026 and 2028.
Gen Z is not a small group. While turnout among younger voters is traditionally lower, participation increases with age. If this cohort becomes more reliable voters while remaining deeply hostile to the Republican brand, the consequences could be severe.
In a midterm environment, that kind of shift could mean massive losses in the House of Representatives. A 40, 50, or even 60 seat swing is not guaranteed, but it is absolutely within the realm of possibility.
Just last year, Trump was boasting about his breakthrough with young voters. He framed it as proof that he had broadened the Republican coalition and redefined the party’s future.
Now, that supposed accomplishment has turned into a liability.
A 42-point reversal among young voters is not just embarrassing. It is a strategic disaster. The brand Trump built was based on disruption and expansion. What we are seeing instead is contraction.
The bigger question
The 2024 election may turn out to be an anomaly rather than a blueprint.
Trump managed to temporarily attract Gen Z voters, particularly young men, through cultural channels rather than policy. But as those voters confront economic reality and actual governance, they are moving away just as fast as they arrived.
The data suggests that Republicans cannot win national elections if they lose Gen Z entirely. And right now, that is exactly what is happening.
If that trend holds, the consequences for Republicans in November and beyond could be severe.
And this time, the numbers are not spinning. They are flashing red.
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It is understandable that younger folks are rethinking their votes for TRUMPSTEIN. Prices for everything have skyrocketed. This directly affects all of us. Only a TRUMPSTEIN Cult Member is stupid enough to pay through the wazoo for everything, no matter what the price. I wonder at what point they might become aware that they can no longer afford their mortgage, rent, groceries, electricity, health insurance, gas, and everything else. I'm pondering at what point will they draw the line? When they pay $200 for a couple groceries? When they can't feed their families? How far can TRUMPSTEIN push them before they figure out the reality of things?🤔🤔
Gallup issued a report showing that 40% of American women aged 15-44 would like to permanently move to another country if they had the chance. That is a fourfold increase from what the percentage was in 2014 when only 10% of women in that age group expressed a desire to emigrate. Women in that age group are twice as likely as men to want to leave the country. And the United States is the only country of the 38 surveyed by Gallup in which women’s desire to emigrate showed such a dramatic increase over that time period.
The survey reported that women who disapprove of our nation’s leadership (aka Trump and MAGA) are four times more likely than those who approve to want to become expatriates. The report specifically referenced the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade as a factor alienating young women.
A separate report from the Pew Research Center documents a sharp decline among 12th-grade girls who hope to be married. It appears that growing numbers of young women would rather be childless cat ladies than MAGA tradwives.