Trump’s next target: the midterms

Eight months out, the groundwork is being laid not just to win elections, but to control them.

Eight months before the midterms, I find myself thinking something I hoped I wouldn’t have to say out loud.

It is becoming extraordinarily obvious that Donald Trump is going to try something to either cancel, delay, or manipulate the upcoming elections.

Let me be very clear at the outset. I am not predicting that he will succeed. I am not saying the federal government can simply snap its fingers and cancel elections that are ultimately run by the states. What I am saying is this: if Trump believed he could get away with it, he would absolutely try.

And right now, he appears to be laying the groundwork.

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The conditions come first

Over the weekend, a few friends asked me whether Trump might use the Iran situation as a pretext to cancel the midterms.

I don’t think that’s likely. I don’t think anyone is going to buy the argument that we can’t have elections in Georgia because the president is bombing Iran. Even setting aside the timeline Trump himself has floated for that conflict, the connection is too thin.

Domestic chaos is a different story.

If you want to create a justification for interfering with elections, you start by constructing an environment that feels unstable: mass protests, escalated immigration crackdowns, federal troop deployments, emergency declarations in multiple states. Each of those moves becomes a dot on the map. Connect enough dots and you can paint a picture of a country supposedly too unstable to hold safe elections.

That’s the scaffolding.

Once you have that, the argument becomes familiar: law and order is under threat, states cannot guarantee security, something must be done. Maybe a temporary postponement, framed as a security measure. Maybe federal “assistance” to protect polling places.

It would go to court immediately. There are lawyers already preparing for scenarios like this. Courts would likely block an outright cancellation or delay.

But the attempt itself matters.

The litigation. The headlines. The uncertainty. All of it chips away at trust in the process.

We’ve seen the playbook before

Think back to January 6, 2021. That was an attempt to overturn an election after losing it. Once that psychological barrier has been breached, the next step becomes easier to imagine.

If you can’t overturn an election after the fact, maybe you interfere while it is happening.

And interference does not require a dramatic, headline-grabbing cancellation.

It can take quieter forms:

• Pressure on state officials, including secretaries of state

• Attempts to replace or sideline election administrators

• Last-minute rule changes

• Ballot challenges and signature rejections

• Aggressive voter roll purges

• Shrinking polling locations in hostile districts

• Endless recount demands and legal maneuvers

Layer on top of that the informational component, preemptively claiming fraud, encouraging friendly candidates to declare victory early, telling supporters that any loss is illegitimate, etc.

You do not need to cancel the election if you can create enough confusion in enough swing districts.

The incremental erosion

Many Democrats assume the midterms will happen normally. I believe they will happen, but I do not believe they will feel normal.

Authoritarianism does not typically arrive with tanks rolling toward polling places. It tends to arrive through incremental erosion. A few administrative changes here, a few million names quietly removed from voter rolls there. Federal agents stationed at polling locations under the banner of “integrity.” Court cases that sow doubt even when they fail.

Eventually, the goal is not necessarily to stop the vote outright. It is to make participation feel futile or risky.

If enough people conclude that the chaos, threats, and confusion are not worth pushing through just to cast a ballot, the objective has been achieved without formally canceling anything.

And that is the danger.

What comes next

Trump would love to cancel or delay the midterms, particularly as polling suggests he could face significant losses. But he may not need something that dramatic.

Confusion can suppress turnout. Fear can distort results. Administrative friction can change outcomes at the margins. In tight races, margins are everything.

I am not predicting a clean, nationwide cancellation of the midterms.

I do expect attempts to test boundaries. I expect legal fights. I expect rhetoric about fraud well before a single vote is cast.

Between now and November, the most important thing is awareness. Understand the tactics, recognize the incremental moves, and refuse to be intimidated into disengagement.

If the strategy is to exhaust and discourage voters, the answer is not to stay home.

It is to show up anyway.

We are going to be covering this closely in the months ahead.

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—David

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