Trump's stock market myth

Yes, U.S. stocks are up. But compared to the rest of the developed world, we’re near the bottom.

Donald Trump keeps bragging about the stock market.

The Dow hits 50,000. Stocks are booming. Best economy ever.

Technically, stocks are up. Since Trump returned to office, U.S. markets have gained roughly 14 percent. If you have a portfolio, it is probably higher than it was months ago. That part is real.

But that is not the full story.

Up compared to what?

A recent chart making the rounds shows U.S. stock returns under Trump ranking 21st out of 23 developed markets.

Read that again.

Out of 23 comparable wealthy countries, the United States is near the bottom. Global markets are up far more than the U.S. market. In some cases, triple the gains.

Investors are not limited to one country. Capital can flow to Europe, Asia, emerging markets. If the United States were uniquely strong and stable, money would be flooding here at a higher rate.

Instead, we are lagging.

Context is everything

This is where context matters.

When Joe Biden was in office and inflation surged, Republicans insisted that context did not matter. Inflation was high and therefore it was Biden’s fault.

But the full picture showed that inflation peaked higher in many peer countries and fell faster in the U.S. than in much of the developed world. If you compare properly, the U.S. was not uniquely failing.

Now we apply the same standard to Trump and the markets.

Yes, stocks are up. But compared to what?

If global markets are ripping higher while the United States is crawling by comparison, you are not dominating. You are underperforming.

It is victory messaging built on a partial chart.

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Markets price in stability

The stock market is not a scoreboard for presidential speeches. It reflects investor expectations about stability, growth, and risk.

Since returning to office, Trump has delivered tariff fights, renewed trade battles, legal uncertainty, and frequent rhetorical volatility. Markets do not love unpredictability. Investors want clarity about policy and long-term direction.

When the United States ranks 21st out of 23 comparable economies, that suggests global capital is seeing better opportunities elsewhere.

That undercuts one of Trump’s core myths. He markets himself as the businessman president, the markets guy, the dealmaker Wall Street loves.

But markets are comparative. They do not reward branding, they reward returns.

The Trump brand vs the numbers

There is an irony here that extends to Trump personally.

He famously turned a modest inheritance into billions. But analyses have shown that had he simply invested that inheritance in a broad stock market index fund and done nothing else, he likely would have ended up wealthier than through his various business ventures.

The lesson is the same.

You cannot evaluate performance in isolation. You have to ask what the alternative was. You have to ask how you did relative to your peers.

Right now, the United States market is up, but it is not leading. It is trailing.

The story they won’t tell

If you only listen to Trump or his allies, you would think the U.S. stock market is uniquely thriving.

The data show something more nuanced. Gains, yes. Dominance, no.

Capital moves toward stability and growth. When we lag 21st out of 23 developed markets, that is not a badge of economic supremacy, but a sign that investors see stronger prospects elsewhere.

Markets are up. That is good.

But context matters. And in context, the bragging looks a lot less impressive.

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