EDITORIAL: Why Donald Trump Will Win (hypothetical)
A thought experiment that steel-mans the case for Donald Trump's path to the presidency.
Anyone claiming it’s obvious either Trump or Biden will win this November is not telling you a story based in fact. Online echo chambers are pervasive, and we are all susceptible to them. This election is going to be close, likely decided by about 250,000 votes in 3-5 states. It truly could go either way.
The 2024 election is unprecedented. The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is a former president who lost re-election, has been indicted four times since leaving office, and is now a convicted felon. He’s heading towards a rematch against the man who defeated him almost four years ago, current President Joe Biden. But it would be a mistake to assume that Trump’s criminal trials will decide the outcome of the 2024 race. These trials will be a factor, but most people are not following them as closely as we are. Some don’t care that Trump is on trial; others might be pushed even more strongly toward him.
The Polling
According to FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump is currently leading. The New York Times reports Trump is ahead in five critical swing states: Pennsylvania by three points, Arizona by seven, Michigan by seven, Georgia by ten, and Nevada by twelve. Biden won all five of these states in 2020. Remember the Electoral College: in 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4%, but he nearly lost the election electorally.
Despite a strong State of the Union address, Biden’s approval rating has declined slightly. Despite nonstop legal turmoil, Trump still has a higher approval rating (41.5%) than Biden (37.6%). Even Hillary Clinton, one of the weakest and most disliked candidates in modern American history, had a higher approval rating in May 2016 (39%) than Biden currently has (37.6%). These numbers don’t look good for Biden.
The Economy
What about the economy? Presidents usually get re-elected when the economy is good, but half the country currently thinks we're in a recession. This belief, though unfounded by metrics, is disastrous for Biden. Most Americans say the economy and inflation are the most important issues determining their vote. According to an Ipsos poll, voters prefer Trump over Biden on the economy by a 14-point margin.
While we aren’t in a recession, the economy is not perfect. Much of the country is right to be dissatisfied with "Bidenomics." Nearly 70% of Americans say the economy is getting worse, while only 22% say it is improving. 84% say their cost of living is rising, with almost half blaming food and grocery prices. Housing costs are up, and almost half of all renters spend more than 30% of their income on rent.
Biden isn’t responsible for every economic woe, but he’s the president, and elections are referenda on the national economy. Biden insisting the economy is great could be perceived by many Americans as dismissive of their economic struggles, making the MAGA message more appealing.
Foreign Policy
Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy, particularly his stance on the Israel/Gaza conflict, may prove politically advantageous in the upcoming election. While his own militarism is worse than Biden’s, Trump has strategically remained relatively quiet on the issue, recognizing how damaging it is to Biden. Despite his track record of supporting human rights abusers, expanding the military budget, and sabotaging the Iran Deal, Trump is still perceived by many as an "anti-war" candidate. His dismissive comment that Israel should "finish up your war" reflects a broader indifference, yet he understands that most Americans are weary of expensive and unjust wars. By attacking Biden on this front, much like he did with Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump could leverage the anti-war sentiment to his advantage.
Some pundits downplay the significance of anti-war protesters, noting that Biden’s foreign policy ranks low among voter concerns according to the Harvard Youth Poll. However, the same poll indicates that Israel/Palestine is a priority for 37% of likely Democratic voters, and The New York Times reports that 13% of swing state voters who supported Biden in 2020 will not vote for him in 2024 specifically because of Gaza. With the election expected to be extremely close, Biden cannot afford to lose these votes. Trump’s political instincts, though self-serving and often cynical, allow him to exploit discontent with Biden effectively. This could be a pivotal factor as the race tightens in key swing states.
Biden as a Weak Candidate
Trump has a clear message that inspires voters: MAGA, Agenda 47, Project 2025. These are dangerous, authoritarian ideas, but persuasive to his base. According to Pew Research, 56% of Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 did so because he’s “not Trump.” This worked in 2020, but can “not Trump” work again?
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 40% of registered voters say Biden has a “strong record of policy achievements,” whereas 51% believe Trump does. Despite his legal woes, Trump has also been more active on the campaign trail, doing more interviews and rallies than Biden in recent months.
Conclusion
Bottom line: Trump could win. 2024 could resemble 2016 more than 2020. In 2008 and 2012, Obama won by exciting voters. In 2016, Trump won with pseudo-populist rhetoric that appealed to blue-collar workers in swing states that Hillary Clinton ignored. In 2020, people were eager to vote Trump out due to his mismanagement of COVID and global disgrace. Now, Joe Biden is the incumbent. He faces some of the lowest approval ratings of his presidential tenure, he is currently losing 5 swing states, and he has angered a slice of the left over his handling of the Israeli-Gaza conflict.
Trump can absolutely win this thing. However, there is another case to be made, one that favors Biden. Watch this video to see the case for why Biden will win:
I believe that Biden will win by a million of 10 million votes or more! Providing everybody does what they did for the 2020 election. It's not like Trump is trying to get any more new members to join him....He lost the last time and he'll lose again this time....There are soooo many more people that are fed up with Trump. I personally have republicans on my facebook saying this will be voting for Biden also...So mathmatically if just 1 person does that, its 2 voters that Trump would have to get to tie Biden with losing a vote and the opposite person gaining a vote.......Two predictions: Biden will win by at least 10 million votes, and we will also see our first woman president within Biden's 2nd term. WE CANNOT LOSE OUR DEMOCRACY......Everybody vote blue, or we'll all be following a new "russia" here in the US!!! We cannot become an autocratic country!!!
It’s bizarre how many people on here are angry at David, seemingly unaware of what a “steelman argument” is. Perhaps more commonly known as a Devil’s Advocate (I’m aware that the two terms are not exactly interchangeable).
Looking at both sides is a healthy way to approach this, even if you absolutely despise Trump (as I do).
So before you yell and scream about canceling your membership, get a grip on what David is actually doing here. He’s clearly doing everything he can to help defeat Trump.