EDITORIAL: Kamala Doing EVERYTHING RIGHT, But She STILL Might Lose

Despite running a successful campaign so far, Kamala Harris could still lose to Donald Trump on November 5th

Kamala Harris is doing everything right in this campaign—but she still might lose. In the last few months, she’s been running a strong, well-executed campaign, one that has significantly improved the Democratic Party’s chances compared to when President Joe Biden was the top of the ticket. Despite this, the road to victory in the 2024 election remains precariously narrow, and Donald Trump’s unexpected resilience could once again make this a nail-biting contest.

Last week, I discussed how Donald Trump, despite running what many would consider a chaotic and mistake-ridden campaign, still has a 50/50 chance of winning the presidency. That analysis revealed that Trump, despite a series of missteps and poor decisions—including his choice of running mate in J.D. Vance and a lackluster debate performance—was polling better electorally than he was in 2020. It showed that, no matter how bad his campaign may seem, Trump still has a very real path back to the White House.

Today, we look at the reverse scenario. Kamala Harris has been performing exceptionally well. She has surged in the polls, reignited enthusiasm in the Democratic base, and largely erased the negativity surrounding Biden’s presidency. Yet, even with all this positive momentum, there remains a significant chance that she could still lose to Trump.

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Biden stepped aside. She quickly coalesced the support of key party figures and endorsements, locking up the delegates needed for the nomination. This was her first major victory and the beginning of what seemed like a resurgence for the Democrats. After securing the nomination, Harris had the difficult task of proving to the public that she was a better candidate than Biden, particularly in the polls against Trump. She worked diligently to improve her low approval ratings, and it paid off—polls soon reflected that swapping Biden for Harris was indeed a smart move for the Democratic Party.

She capitalized on this momentum by hosting large, energetic rallies, showcasing her enhanced public speaking skills. During one of these events, Harris took a notable shot at Trump when he considered backing out of a debate with her, saying, “Say it to my face.” This moment resonated with voters, presenting her as a confident and tough opponent.

Critics on the right were quick to question Harris’s decision to avoid media interviews early in her campaign, accusing her of dodging tough questions. But this cautious approach worked to her advantage. By holding off on interviews, Harris minimized the chances of a potential media gaffe, and her polling numbers continued to climb without them. It was a calculated strategy that kept the focus on her growing strengths rather than exposing her to unnecessary risks.

Harris’s next major challenge was finding the right running mate, and in selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, she once again made the right call. Walz brought a relatable, Midwestern appeal to the ticket, and his down-to-earth style helped counter the eccentricity of Trump’s team. Walz’s branding of Trump, Vance, and other Republicans as “just plain weird” resonated with many voters, particularly those in battleground states.

The Democratic National Convention (DNC) was another success for Harris. Her speech was well-received, and her campaign continued to rake in contributions. Since the start of her campaign, Harris has raised hundreds of millions of dollars, ensuring that she has the financial muscle to support not just her own race but down-ballot candidates as well.

The cherry on top of Harris’s strong campaign was her debate performance against Donald Trump. By all accounts, it was a masterclass. Harris appeared calm, presidential, and knowledgeable, while Trump veered off into tangents and struggled to maintain composure. Polls showed that she won the debate decisively, and it resulted in another boost for her campaign. Trump, on the other hand, was left rattled, and the Republican Party found itself scrambling to regain control of the narrative.

As we stand now, with just over a month to go before the election, Harris is leading Trump in national polls. Some surveys have her leading nationally by 5, 6, and even 7 percentage points. Compared to Biden’s polling earlier this year, Harris’s campaign seems to be in a much stronger position.

And yet—despite all of this—Harris could still lose. The race for the White House isn’t won on the national stage; it’s decided by the Electoral College. And when we examine the state-by-state breakdown, the path to victory remains treacherously close.

For Trump, the key to winning the presidency lies in flipping Arizona and Georgia, both of which traditionally lean Republican. If he can hold onto North Carolina, which is also in play, he would then need to win just one of the Rust Belt states—Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania—to secure an electoral victory.

It’s true that Harris has opened up new paths to victory that Biden did not have. Biden was not competitive in states like North Carolina, Arizona, or Nevada in 2024, but under Harris, these states have become toss-ups. This gives the Democrats multiple ways to win the presidency, which is undoubtedly a better position than Biden’s narrow path in 2020.

However, the Rust Belt remains a major concern. While Harris has slightly outperformed Biden in these states, polling averages still show an alarmingly tight race. RealClearPolitics’ averages have Harris leading by just 0.7 points in Wisconsin, 1.8 points in Michigan, and 0.6 points in Pennsylvania. With margins this thin, it’s not hard to imagine Trump winning one of these states and snatching the presidency.

Further complicating matters are the efforts by Republicans to suppress votes and potentially reverse outcomes in battleground states. In North Carolina, for instance, new voter ID laws and stricter absentee ballot deadlines could result in thousands of votes being thrown out. Georgia has implemented rules that give election officials more discretion to refuse to certify results. Trump’s 2020 playbook may have failed, but it has provided valuable lessons for 2024. If this election is contested in the courts, the conservative-leaning Supreme Court could once again play a decisive role.

The message is clear: Kamala Harris is running a near-flawless campaign, but victory is far from guaranteed. Polls are just snapshots, and with five weeks to go, anything can happen. For those who want to prevent a second Trump presidency, now is the time to act. Register to vote and ensure that your voice is heard.