Is Newsom vs. Vance INEVITABLE?

2028 is shaping up to be the strangest, most crowded race in modern politics.

Speculation is already running wild about the 2028 presidential election. And yes, I’m breaking my own rule about future elections. Longtime viewers know I have a pretty strict policy on this: I don’t like to talk about elections that are too far away. First, we deal with the election that is right in front of us, then we move on to the next one in line.

We got through the 2025 elections. That would normally mean, at most, we start talking about 2026. Yet here we are, talking about 2028. Why? Because we are in a genuinely unusual situation. The soft launch of the 2028 race is already happening in plain sight.

We have early tests of what 2028 might look like on both sides, and pretending those tests are not happening does not make them go away.

---

The Early Democratic Picture

On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom is clearly the name that keeps rising to the top. California’s governor is polling exceptionally well for this far out, particularly after his big win with Proposition 50 in this month’s election. That victory is being read, fairly or not, as a proof of concept for a Newsom-style message in a national race.

At the same time, there is no shortage of other names quietly circling the conversation.

I’ve mentioned that both Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Maryland Governor Wes Moore recently invited me to “creator roundtables.” No one sat down and said, “So, about 2028,” but it is very hard to believe these events are completely detached from the early positioning that is now underway. These meetings are, at minimum, a way to feel out what the creator and media ecosystem might look like during the next open Democratic primary.

Not everyone on the Democratic side is rallying behind Newsom or the governors’ club. A growing number of progressives are arguing the party should skip the centrist shuffle and go straight for a candidate like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In that fantasy bracket, you also hear names like NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, except he is ineligible to be president because he was born outside the United States.

The broader idea from that group is, “Enough with the cautious blue-state governors, let’s go directly to a more openly left, identity-challenging candidate like AOC.”

So even before the numbers come in, multiple theories about the Democratic case for 2028 are already colliding in real time.

---

The Poll That Jumped

Now, let’s talk data.

An Emerson College poll of the 2028 Democratic field has Gavin Newsom at 24 percent. That is up from just 7 percent a year ago, which is a huge jump for a hypothetical primary that is still years away.

In second place is former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10 percent, down dramatically from 37 percent a year ago. Pete Buttigieg is at 9 percent. AOC is at 3 percent. Nineteen percent say they want “someone else,” and thirty-five percent are undecided.

When you aggregate the “someone else” and “I don’t know” categories, you are looking at well over half the party not really committed to anybody yet. So yes, these are very strong early numbers for Newsom, but we also know from history that the person leading three years out is often not the eventual nominee.

You can read this two ways at the same time: One, Newsom clearly has momentum. Two, the field is still very open.

---

The Republican Side Is… Not Healthy

On the Republican side, the picture is arguably even stranger.

Right now, the consensus “heir to Trumpism” seems to be J.D. Vance. In the same Emerson polling, Vance is at 54 percent support among Republican voters for 2028. That alone tells you a lot about where the party is headed.

But the most revealing number is who is in second place.

In second place, at 7 percent, is Donald Trump. The same Donald Trump who is currently president and constitutionally barred from running again. That guy is essentially tied with Marco Rubio, who is at 6 percent, while Ron “DeSanctimonious” DeSantis is hanging on at 2 percent.

The man who cannot legally run is polling at about the same level as the guy who has been marketed for years as the future of the party. It is a snapshot of a political movement that cannot psychologically move on from Trump even when the calendar and the Constitution say that it has to.

Overlay that with the “groyper” insurgency we have talked about, the soft handling of figures like Nick Fuentes, and you start to see why some people think the real wildcard in 2028 could be someone like Tucker Carlson. I have spoken privately with people who genuinely believe that if Tucker ran in a Republican primary, he could win.

You don’t have to agree with that to see the direction of travel. The party is not moving away from Trumpism. If anything, it is still trying to figure out how to package Trumpism in a different body.

---

What Kind of Primary Do Democrats Need?

So where does all of this leave us?

On the Republican side, I expect a primary that is completely chaotic, probably ugly, and still anchored to Trump in some way. Whether that is Vance, or some media figure, or someone we are not even thinking about yet, the basic project will be Trumpism 2.0.

On the Democratic side, we are heading toward something we have not really seen before, at least not in the modern era. There is a crowded bench of governors, senators, and national figures who could plausibly run. There is a vocal progressive wing that wants its own champion. There is a former vice president who many assumed would be the natural heir but whose numbers are now sliding.

My view is simple. Let everyone in who wants to run.

If you are eligible to be president and you think you have a case to make, get in the pool and let voters decide. If Newsom, Shapiro, and Wes Moore all want to run, they should all run. They are, in many ways, competing for similar slices of the electorate, and there is nothing wrong with letting that play out in the open.

Wes Moore has already said he does not plan to run in 2028. Personally, I do not take that as a permanently binding statement. It is very easy for a governor in 2027 to say, “Circumstances have changed, I did not plan to do this, but I now believe I am the right person for the job.” Politicians discover new “callings” all the time.

If AOC wants to run, if Pete Buttigieg wants to run, if others want to enter the mix, they should do it. A broad primary is not something to be afraid of. It is, in my view, the best way to surface the strongest possible nominee from a genuinely diverse field.

---

Where This Is Headed

We are still early, and everything I have said here is based on hypothetical matchups and polls that will move many times between now and 2028. But the direction is already visible.

Republicans are not over Trump. Democrats are clearly ready to move into a post-Biden era, but they have not yet decided what that era should look like.

My prediction is that the Democratic primary we are heading toward in 2028 is going to be unlike anything we have seen before. Multiple viable candidates, multiple ideological lanes, and a generational argument about what the party should be in a post-Trump, post-Biden, post-“normal politics” environment.

I’ve broken my own rule to talk about it now because pretending the 2028 race has not already started does not make it less real. The campaigns may still be “soft,” but the numbers, the meetings, and the positioning are all already here.

So I’ll end with this: If you are a Democratic voter, what do you want this field to look like? Are you in the Newsom–Shapiro–Moore lane, the AOC lane, the “someone else entirely” lane? And if you are on the right, who do you actually want leading your party when Trump is no longer an option on the ballot?

Let me know in the comments.

---

We’re reaching over 150 million people every month across YouTube, podcasts, Substack, and beyond. But algorithms can change. Platforms can fold. And when that happens, this newsletter is how we stay connected.

If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, please consider joining.
If you’re already paid on one platform, consider supporting us on both Substack and our website.

You can subscribe on our website and right here on Substack.

And if you’re really on fire, consider gifting a subscription—we’ve got thousands on our waiting list ready to read, watch, and fight back.

Let’s keep building.

—David

PS: Can’t contribute right now? No problem. You can support us for free by subscribing on YouTube, listening to our audio podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or become a free subscriber to this very Substack. Every bit counts.