Are we actually approaching civil war?

Let’s explain it without going full doomsday.

For years now, there’s been a cottage industry of people predicting civil war in the United States. Every election, protest, and heated news cycle we would hear it.

“This is it,” they’d say. “This is the civil war.”

And for a long time, it wasn’t just exaggerated rhetoric. It was cynical rhetoric.

At the time, there was no organized, plausible pathway to civil war in the United States. What there was were commentators who figured out that fear is profitable. “Civil war” drives clicks, fear, and engagement. And unfortunately it sells.

I didn’t participate in that, because it’s wrong. It does real damage and desensitizes the public to the idea. It makes “civil war” sound like just another spicy phrase you throw into a headline to push traffic.

So when I come to you now and say, something different is happening, it’s understandable why people might roll their eyes.

Because we’ve had years of “civil war” hysteria over mask mandates and school board meetings. We’ve had the boy-who-cried-wolf dynamic so many times that it becomes harder to recognize the moments when institutions are actually under strain.

But what took place in Minneapolis, and what is unfolding in Minnesota right now, is not the usual social media drama. It’s not a rhetorical flourish. It’s a kind of escalation that political scientists actually worry about.

Let’s explain it without going full doomsday.

What happened in Minnesota

This week, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said he is preparing the Minnesota National Guard to physically stop, through confrontation, federal immigration operations in Minnesota.

Let’s be clear about what that means.

A state executive is signaling readiness to use a state-controlled armed force to block federal law enforcement. This time, not through a lawsuit or an injunction first. Not through the slow-moving “let’s let the courts sort it out” process we usually rely on.

This time, through physical confrontation.

This is happening in the aftermath of the murder of a 37-year-old, Renee Nicole Good. An American citizen, a wife, a mother, a poet, and a woman who was shot 3 times by one of Trump’s ICE Goons.

And whether you agree with Walz’s posture or not, whether you like his politics or not, whether you think this is justified or reckless, this basic fact remains:

We are potentially looking at the Minnesota National Guard physically facing off against federal agents.

That’s not normal.

Civil wars don’t start the way people think they do

When people hear “civil war,” they picture neighbors shooting each other in the streets overnight. With two clean sides forming instantly and a clear start date. Eventually leading to a dramatic declaration.

But that’s usually not how it works.

Civil conflict often starts when institutions stop recognizing each other’s authority; when the chain of command breaks. It starts when state and federal power collide in a way that can’t be resolved by a court order or an election result, at least not quickly enough to stop escalation.

Historically, that’s a danger zone.

That’s why the Minnesota situation matters. It’s not an indefinite announcement of civil war. But we are beginning to see the scaffolding for the type of conflict that can spiral into something much worse if it continues to be mishandled.

What usually prevents escalation

In the United States, even when conflict gets extreme, disputes between states and the federal government have typically been mediated through lawsuits, injunctions, and federal courts. This is slow, frustrating, and often unsatisfying in the moment.

But part of the point of that process is to keep political conflict from turning into armed conflict, and let the temperature cool down, so to speak.

Usually a state sues, the Justice Department responds, a judge rules, and the system grinds forward. Everyone complains but at least the institutional pathways still exist.

Once you get beyond that, if you move into a world where state-controlled forces are confronting federal agents in person, you are no longer in normal political territory.

And once you leave that territory, the risk becomes miscalculation.

The next move matters more than the statements

Here’s the key point: the next move matters more than the rhetoric.

If Minnesota files for injunctions and Trump’s administration complies, even begrudgingly, that’s one trajectory.

If Minnesota files for injunctions and Trump defies court orders, the risk of escalation goes up dramatically.

Civil conflict risk rises not just when people disagree, but when courts are not treated as binding. But when officials say, “I don’t care what the court said,” you start to move into a scenario where there is no referee, no agreed-upon rulebook, and no shared authority.

And we’ve already seen multiple instances over the last year where the Trump administration has effectively communicated: we don’t care what the courts say.

This institutional breakdown piece is key. This is the part that should make you pay attention.

Why this is especially dangerous under Trump

This is also happening in the context of Donald Trump’s presidency, where federal law enforcement is increasingly perceived, rightly or wrongly, as a political weapon. When states begin to treat federal agencies as illegitimate or hostile, it becomes easier to justify deploying state forces “in defense.”

That is how trust collapses. Once trust collapses, you don’t need everyone to want conflict, you just need a few people to push, and then a few people on the other side to push back, and then someone pushes a little more than ever before.

Escalation is not one big movement, but instead a series of small decisions each slightly more unhinged than the last.

The damage done by years of “civil war” hype

One of the most frustrating parts of this moment is that the people who screamed “civil war” over every cultural disagreement have made it harder for the public to recognize the real warning signs.

They turned a serious concept into a marketing hook.

So now, when more serious actors come in and say, “I’m not saying it’s inevitable, but something is shifting,” it doesn’t get the attention it deserves. Because everyone’s been trained to hear “civil war” and assume it’s just another overhyped news cycle.

That’s the boy-who-cried-wolf problem.

It puts Americans at a serious risk of underestimating the current situation and future conflict.

The hopeful part, if there is one

The hopeful part is that this can still be de-escalated.

Courts exist and Congress exists. And governors and federal officials can still step back from the brink if they choose to.

The problem is that pretending this is just another overhyped news cycle would be a mistake.

Civil wars start when the rules stop working. Especially when breaking those rules threatens the lives of our neighbors.

Bottom line

I’m not here telling you we are in a civil war.

I am telling you that when a governor is preparing the National Guard to physically block federal agents, we are looking at a type of institutional collision that historically can lead to escalating conflict if it’s handled recklessly.

The question what the institutions do next.

Does Minnesota go the legal route and do courts act quickly? Does the federal government comply with rulings, even if it hates them?

Or do we move into a world where armed forces are used as political leverage?

Because that’s the moment where things get volatile fast.

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