EDITORIAL: Please Remember That The Electoral College Exists
Joe Biden can be ahead in national polls while still being on track to lose
Should Joe Biden stay in the race?
Over the last week, several top Democrats have called on Biden to step aside. Nancy Pelosi recently told Biden that polls show he cannot win and that he is jeopardizing the Democratic Party’s chances of retaining the House. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries reportedly met with Biden last weekend and expressed grave concerns about his viability as a candidate. Jamie Raskin wrote a letter to Biden earlier this month urging him to reconsider his candidacy. Barack Obama has said that Biden’s path to reelection is “greatly diminished.” As of writing this, over 30 Democratic congresspeople have asked Biden to drop out of the race, and this number is expected to increase in the coming days. Perhaps most consequentially, Democratic megadonors are reportedly working to push Biden out.
Without saying anything about whether President Biden should or should not exit the race, I want to examine the path forward. This election is unprecedented for many reasons, including the fact that it currently features the same match-up as the previous election cycle: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump. This allows us to compare the 2020 electoral results that led to Biden's victory with his current standing in the race.
Notably, the 2020 election was heavily influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which played a significant role in Biden's victory. Without the pandemic and its devastating impact, Biden might not have won. While incumbency is typically seen as an advantage, assuming Biden will defeat Trump in 2024 just because he won in 2020 would be a mistake. Even before the debate, I have repeatedly emphasized that this election will be close, likely decided by a few swing states, and that Biden could lose. This is due to the existence of the Electoral College, which means the election is decided not by which candidate gets the most votes, but by who wins the most electoral college votes. Biden can win the popular vote and still lose the election, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. With this in mind, let's review the 2020 results.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4% but nearly lost the election. His victory was secured by narrow wins in six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Except for Nevada, all of these states switched from red in 2016 to blue in 2020. Let’s take a closer look at the swing states that delivered Biden victory in 2020 and compare the results to what the polling says today.
Georgia
In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia by 0.3%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Georgia by 4%.
Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Biden in Georgia throughout the entire year.
Arizona
In 2020, Joe Biden won the swing state of Arizona by just 0.4%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Arizona by 6%.
Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Biden in Arizona throughout the entire year.
Despite this, if you look at the down-ballot races, Democrat Ruben Gallego is leading MAGA lunatic Kari Lake by 3%.
This is not a good sign for Joe Biden.
Nevada
In 2020, Joe Biden won Nevada by 2.4%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Nevada by 5.1%.
Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Biden in Nevada throughout the entire year.
Despite this, Democrat Jacky Rosen is leading MAGA lunatic Sam Brown by 5.2%, meaning that Rosen has a larger lead over Brown than Trump has over Biden.
This is not a good sign for Joe Biden.
Michigan
In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan by 2.8%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Michigan by 1.7%.
This is the swing state that Joe Biden is most likely to keep, even though he is currently losing in the average of polls.
Despite this, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is leading MAGA lunatic Mike Rogers by 5%, meaning that Slotkin has a larger lead over Rogers than Trump has over Biden.
This is not a good sign for Joe Biden.
Wisconsin
In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by 0.6%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Wisconsin by 3.3%.
Despite this, Democrat Tammy Baldwin is leading MAGA lunatic Eric Hovde by 4.8%, meaning that Baldwin has a larger lead over Hovde than Trump has over Biden.
This is not a good sign for Joe Biden.
Pennsylvania
In 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2%.
According to the Real Clear Politics Average, Trump is currently leading in Pennsylvania by 4.5%.
Despite this, Democrat Bob Casey is leading MAGA lunatic David McCormick by 6.2%, meaning that Casey has a larger lead over McCormick than Trump has over Biden.
This is not a good sign for Joe Biden.
In the coming months, perhaps Joe Biden’s national polling average will improve (assuming he remains the nominee), but if it does, we must remain skeptical, because nationwide polling averages are not actually an indicator of who is ahead. The Electoral College determines the election result, not the national popular vote, meaning that “Biden is 1 point ahead of Trump” does not mean “Biden is on track to win.” Joe Biden can be ahead in national polls while still being on track to lose.
That being said, Joe Biden is also losing in the national polls by 3%.
Critically, as Rachel Bitecofer mentioned on our panel with Cenk Uygur, Joe Biden has much stronger campaign infrastructure than Donald Trump. He has far surpassed Trump in field offices in these critical swing states, with 24 in Pennsylvania, 30 in Michigan, and 44 in Wisconsin as of this May. The Biden campaign has also out-spent Republicans in swing state ad-spending by more than double. However, this highlights a significant issue for Biden: despite his stronger ground game, this advantage is not reflected in any of the polling we reviewed. Additionally, it's concerning that while Biden is trailing Trump in these critical swing states, candidates like Gallego, Rosen, Slotkin, Baldwin, and Casey are beating their MAGA opponents by substantial margins. This suggests that all of these states are “winnable” for Democrats, but that Biden is incapable of turning out the vote. This does not guarantee that Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, or Gavin Newsom would have better swing state polling, but it is worth exploring whether they might be more effective at getting people to show up on election day.
Assuming Biden remains the nominee, some of these swing states are still in play, but others appear to be a lost cause. In Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, Trump has maintained a solid 4+ point lead over Biden since the beginning of 2024. Is it possible that Biden can keep Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia? Perhaps, but it seems unlikely. On the other hand, in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Biden since the beginning of 2024, but the margins are much slimmer, sometimes by less than 1%. If Joe Biden loses Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia but keeps Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, it will be very close, but Biden would be in good shape to win a second term. This is what the electoral map might look like under those circumstances:
As you can see, even if Joe Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the margin of victory will be razor thin. If he loses any of those three states, and the polling suggests that he’s currently losing all of them, it’s over. Joe Biden needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Can he win them? Yes, they are all within striking distance if the polling is to be believed. But a lot of this depends on what Joe Biden does moving forward.
This brings us to Allan Lichtman’s keys. Two of Lichtman’s keys that currently lean in Trump’s favor are the "No Foreign/Military Failure" key and the "Major Foreign/Military Success" key. Lichtman has stated that Joe Biden’s response to the war in Gaza has been a foreign policy failure. However, if Biden can successfully negotiate a permanent ceasefire deal accepted by both Israel and Hamas, it would count as a foreign policy success. Such a deal could also help salvage some of Biden’s Arab American support in the critical swing state of Michigan. Another key, the "Social Unrest" key, leans in Biden’s favor, though Lichtman has not yet made a definitive judgment. While pro-Palestine protests have the potential to become more widespread, this has not yet happened. A successful ceasefire negotiation could reduce the likelihood of social unrest closer to the election, increasing Biden’s chances of securing this key as well.
A third key, the "No Third Party" key, remains undecided but leans in Biden’s favor. According to Lichtman, third-party candidates need to consistently poll at an average of 10% or more to turn this key false. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has seen polls ranging between 3% and 11% and has struggled to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Following Biden’s debate performance, Kennedy’s polling has not increased significantly. However, Biden should still make efforts to appeal to Democratic voters who might view RFK Jr. as a viable progressive alternative.
Critically, Joe Biden should not make the mistake that Hillary Clinton made in 2016. Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by narrow margins. She has frequently been criticized for not campaigning there as much as she should have (although even if she had campaigned there more frequently, it is not guaranteed that she would have defeated Trump). Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were key to Clinton’s 2016 defeat, Biden needs to make them key to his 2024 victory.
To say nothing about whether or not Biden should be replaced, the road ahead will be very difficult. Even if Biden had a stellar debate performance and it was universally agreed that Trump lost, the election would still hinge on thousands of votes in a few critical swing states. Ignoring the polls would be a mistake, even if they all favored Biden. If we choose to believe that the polls are all wrong and that Biden is actually ahead, we should still act as if Biden were behind and campaign accordingly, because the threat of a second Trump presidency is too great to ignore. We must remember that the electoral college exists and that national polling averages tell us very little about who will be the next president. It doesn't matter if Biden wins the popular vote or if his approval rating is high or low. What matters is how many people vote for him in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Which is why the Electoral College should have been cancelled decades ago.
Joe has had a lifelong disability and people are showing their prejudice against this. Sure, Joe is older now, which accentuates the disability, but Joe can still do the job about as well as he has done to date. If the campaign is conducted properly, with Trump's lies being pointed out, Joe should still win.
If at any point Joe can't do the job, we still have Kamala. If you force Joe out now you'll forever split off a percentage of women and blacks from the party, not to mention the financial costs involved, money that is needed for the campaign against Trump. When the going gets rough, Republicans circle the wagons as they have with Trump. When the going gets tough. Dems circle the firing squad. Dems need to grow a spine.