Joe has had a lifelong disability and people are showing their prejudice against this. Sure, Joe is older now, which accentuates the disability, but Joe can still do the job about as well as he has done to date. If the campaign is conducted properly, with Trump's lies being pointed out, Joe should still win.
If at any point Joe can't do the job, we still have Kamala. If you force Joe out now you'll forever split off a percentage of women and blacks from the party, not to mention the financial costs involved, money that is needed for the campaign against Trump. When the going gets rough, Republicans circle the wagons as they have with Trump. When the going gets tough. Dems circle the firing squad. Dems need to grow a spine.
DAVID - Please openly push for B Obama to run for VP behind Harris. That will swing 20% of the vote to the Dems who will win 55/45 going away. Obama will find it a fun challenge but needs something to stay busy and relevant. He is by far the best backup Harris and the party need. She is no power hungry dummy and will be a 100% team player. The combination will be highly appreciated by the free world. I have not heard this idea from any of the talking heads. John Scheel (Canadian)
This is a great breakdown of the numbers but it still doesn't address the fact that Dems publicly pulled support for their OWN CANDIDATE months before an election and did so without a backup plan. AOC was recently on Instagram with the clear warning that they DO NOT have a plan. I could argue that Harris should have been primed for the position long before this and, agree or not, it would have at least been A PLAN. The key line in this editorial is "...we should still act as if Biden were behind and campaign accordingly..." Too true but that ship has sailed. Dems have dropped their turd in Biden's punchbowl without bringing a bowl of their own and there's no turning back from that. Now we just have to hope that someone can pull a rabbit out of a hat to lure the independents... or that we just turn out in large enough numbers.
If Trump wins the election, this will be the moment it was handed to him.
David, I hope you forwarded this editorial to all those Democratic leaders. They should already know this, but not sure they are paying attention to the big picture. I would vote for Biden regardless, but he needs to step aside. The party desperately needs excitement and energy, not resignation.
Allan Lichtman said that Biden is the way to go. Changing candidates 90 days out is a sure fire way to get Trump elected with all the chaos it would bring. I also think a lot of those big donors that are pushing for Biden’s ouster are not aligned with Biden’s desire to Tax the wealthy and that is definitely not a reason to change our Nominee. The majority of us spoke during g the primaries and we believe in Biden and the polls have been wrong so many times I give very little credence to them.
The polls are just wrong, just like they predicted a red wave? A women’s right to choose and the strength of the economy, jobs performance, plus other key messages will decide. The dems need to get their messaging straight. But we need to destroy MAGA not just win and that might be better left to Harris and a strong VP. with tons of energy! A daily presidential briefing from Harris on how Joe is doing and how well the country has done under his leadership! I am tired of the noise - let’s go …
I'm from the UK and I am bemused / astounded / befuddled. What is wrong with you people? And by "you people" I'm talking about the US population as a whole. Biden is a mess - that's clear - but your country has an enviable economy and jobs record post Covid. I honestly believe that to support Trump is morally reprehensible. Anyone who does is ibso facto immoral. You should all be taking to the streets not to campaign for one or other party but to fix your political system. It's a joke, and is going to swing you in a very dark direction - and drag us down with it!
France and the UK both recently rejected this kind of politics, though I understand Xenophobia and the lies around it are a strong political driver here too, but broadly what the hell can we do when politicians make up a reality and 50% of the US can't tell and don't want to hear. It's literally like the film "Don't Look Up" playing out in real time, except the asteroid here is the spectre of a dictatorship in one of the richest nations on Earth.
President Biden cannot leave the race.. he will defeat this convicted criminal. Morals values are extremely necessary to guide our nation the convicted criminal serial sexual offender towards women known liar has none. The convicted criminal is a con man. No woman should vote him.
He is supported by men who commit violence against their own wives. No woman should vote for him!
Lichtman is great at shifting the goalposts. His model predicted Trump in 2016, but his model was claimed to predict the winner of the popular vote - Hillary. His model was wrong. Afterward, he claimed he was predicting winner only. Similarly, he predicted Gore would win in 2000 but claimed at that time his model was predicting the popular vote winner rather than EC. Which is it, electoral college or popular vote? BTW, his model is based on a model for predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes. In addition, his model has very squishy, non quantifiable "keys" that he routinely flips-flops on to suit the eventual outcome. While polls have been wrong in the past, it is highly unlikely that polls showing split results like this are wrong. There is no cure for aging. Biden is a drag on the ticket and will only get worse with time.
Once again, POLLS are not votes. Do you believe that all those voting for Democrats over Republicans in their states, will turn around and vote against Democrats in November? It doesn't make sense.
Good granular analysis. One thing missing is the Dobbs blowback that has been so evident, well beyond the rosiest proDem polls. For example, the judicial race in WI saw a double digit victory for the Dem with polls showing a result within MOE. Abortion measures are on the ballot in AZ and a number of other states.
Paxton boosts that had he not silenced Harris county in 2020, Trump would've lost Texas. He only won it by 1% (600k) -Because of trumps constant lies about immigrants & threats of “mass deportations” could give Biden/Democrat candidate Texas this year which would be 40 electoral Votes- more than PA/NV/GA combined!!!!!
Which is why the Electoral College should have been cancelled decades ago.
Joe has had a lifelong disability and people are showing their prejudice against this. Sure, Joe is older now, which accentuates the disability, but Joe can still do the job about as well as he has done to date. If the campaign is conducted properly, with Trump's lies being pointed out, Joe should still win.
If at any point Joe can't do the job, we still have Kamala. If you force Joe out now you'll forever split off a percentage of women and blacks from the party, not to mention the financial costs involved, money that is needed for the campaign against Trump. When the going gets rough, Republicans circle the wagons as they have with Trump. When the going gets tough. Dems circle the firing squad. Dems need to grow a spine.
DAVID - Please openly push for B Obama to run for VP behind Harris. That will swing 20% of the vote to the Dems who will win 55/45 going away. Obama will find it a fun challenge but needs something to stay busy and relevant. He is by far the best backup Harris and the party need. She is no power hungry dummy and will be a 100% team player. The combination will be highly appreciated by the free world. I have not heard this idea from any of the talking heads. John Scheel (Canadian)
This is a great breakdown of the numbers but it still doesn't address the fact that Dems publicly pulled support for their OWN CANDIDATE months before an election and did so without a backup plan. AOC was recently on Instagram with the clear warning that they DO NOT have a plan. I could argue that Harris should have been primed for the position long before this and, agree or not, it would have at least been A PLAN. The key line in this editorial is "...we should still act as if Biden were behind and campaign accordingly..." Too true but that ship has sailed. Dems have dropped their turd in Biden's punchbowl without bringing a bowl of their own and there's no turning back from that. Now we just have to hope that someone can pull a rabbit out of a hat to lure the independents... or that we just turn out in large enough numbers.
If Trump wins the election, this will be the moment it was handed to him.
AOC’s info probably came from
hunter biden.
David, I hope you forwarded this editorial to all those Democratic leaders. They should already know this, but not sure they are paying attention to the big picture. I would vote for Biden regardless, but he needs to step aside. The party desperately needs excitement and energy, not resignation.
Allan Lichtman said that Biden is the way to go. Changing candidates 90 days out is a sure fire way to get Trump elected with all the chaos it would bring. I also think a lot of those big donors that are pushing for Biden’s ouster are not aligned with Biden’s desire to Tax the wealthy and that is definitely not a reason to change our Nominee. The majority of us spoke during g the primaries and we believe in Biden and the polls have been wrong so many times I give very little credence to them.
This!
The polls are just wrong, just like they predicted a red wave? A women’s right to choose and the strength of the economy, jobs performance, plus other key messages will decide. The dems need to get their messaging straight. But we need to destroy MAGA not just win and that might be better left to Harris and a strong VP. with tons of energy! A daily presidential briefing from Harris on how Joe is doing and how well the country has done under his leadership! I am tired of the noise - let’s go …
I'm from the UK and I am bemused / astounded / befuddled. What is wrong with you people? And by "you people" I'm talking about the US population as a whole. Biden is a mess - that's clear - but your country has an enviable economy and jobs record post Covid. I honestly believe that to support Trump is morally reprehensible. Anyone who does is ibso facto immoral. You should all be taking to the streets not to campaign for one or other party but to fix your political system. It's a joke, and is going to swing you in a very dark direction - and drag us down with it!
France and the UK both recently rejected this kind of politics, though I understand Xenophobia and the lies around it are a strong political driver here too, but broadly what the hell can we do when politicians make up a reality and 50% of the US can't tell and don't want to hear. It's literally like the film "Don't Look Up" playing out in real time, except the asteroid here is the spectre of a dictatorship in one of the richest nations on Earth.
I am immoral!
Well I guess recognising you have a problem is the first step in fixing it. :-)
Excellent synopsis David! Well written & fact driven.
President Biden cannot leave the race.. he will defeat this convicted criminal. Morals values are extremely necessary to guide our nation the convicted criminal serial sexual offender towards women known liar has none. The convicted criminal is a con man. No woman should vote him.
He is supported by men who commit violence against their own wives. No woman should vote for him!
Lichtman is great at shifting the goalposts. His model predicted Trump in 2016, but his model was claimed to predict the winner of the popular vote - Hillary. His model was wrong. Afterward, he claimed he was predicting winner only. Similarly, he predicted Gore would win in 2000 but claimed at that time his model was predicting the popular vote winner rather than EC. Which is it, electoral college or popular vote? BTW, his model is based on a model for predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes. In addition, his model has very squishy, non quantifiable "keys" that he routinely flips-flops on to suit the eventual outcome. While polls have been wrong in the past, it is highly unlikely that polls showing split results like this are wrong. There is no cure for aging. Biden is a drag on the ticket and will only get worse with time.
Once again, POLLS are not votes. Do you believe that all those voting for Democrats over Republicans in their states, will turn around and vote against Democrats in November? It doesn't make sense.
Good granular analysis. One thing missing is the Dobbs blowback that has been so evident, well beyond the rosiest proDem polls. For example, the judicial race in WI saw a double digit victory for the Dem with polls showing a result within MOE. Abortion measures are on the ballot in AZ and a number of other states.
Paxton boosts that had he not silenced Harris county in 2020, Trump would've lost Texas. He only won it by 1% (600k) -Because of trumps constant lies about immigrants & threats of “mass deportations” could give Biden/Democrat candidate Texas this year which would be 40 electoral Votes- more than PA/NV/GA combined!!!!!
Thank you for mentioning Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys to the White House in case there are those who haven't heard of him.
We democrats must stay informed and fierce. Thank you, Mr. Pakman, for helping us with that.
By Allan Lichtman who correctly predicted the last 40 years of presidental elections.
* Plan A Biden is the best chance to win.
* Plan B Biden resigns now and Harris is president now.
"What Should Dems do if Biden Steps Aside? (PLA.N B) Lichtman Live #58"
https://www.youtube.com/live/zKpZvm61G58?si=3WSmT_MRVrpsu_Hl