Well, here we are. After months of campaigning, polling, debates, and political chaos, the 2026 midterm elections are finally upon us.
Tomorrow, Americans will head to the polls in an election that could dramatically change the balance of power in Washington and determine what the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency look like.
Every seat in the House of Representatives is on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. And while much of the attention has been focused on whether Democrats can regain control of Congress, there are several other important stories we’ll be watching unfold.
I’ve spent the last several weeks reviewing polling, analyzing competitive races, and speaking with people close to campaigns across the country. There are some races where the outcome seems relatively clear, others that remain extremely close, and a few where we could see some genuine surprises.
So, with election night just one day away, let’s talk about what’s at stake.
The House: Can Democrats regain control?
At this point, the polling is overwhelmingly pointing toward Democrats taking back the House, potentially by a substantial margin. This has been building for months, and with Trump’s approval ratings as low as they are, Republicans are heading into election day in a very difficult position.
The question now is less about whether Democrats have a path to victory and more about just how big their gains could be.
The significance of a Democratic House majority is difficult to overstate, particularly given how little oversight the Republican-controlled Congress has exercised since Trump took office in January 2025.
Democrats would take control of House committees, giving them the ability to investigate the administration, subpoena officials, demand documents, and hold public hearings. There are plenty of questions about the administration’s actions that have gone unanswered, and a change in House leadership could finally force some of those conversations into the open.
There are also real implications for Trump’s legislative agenda. Government funding, spending priorities, and major legislation would all become more difficult for the administration to negotiate without Republican control of the House.
Of course, winning the House wouldn’t give Democrats the ability to enact their entire agenda. Trump would still have veto power, and the Senate would remain an obstacle if Republicans retain control.
But after two years of Republican control of Washington, even one chamber of Congress changing hands would mean a very different second half of Trump’s presidency.
The Senate: A much tougher battle with enormous consequences
The Senate is a different story. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority, meaning Democrats need to gain four seats to take control.
There are opportunities, but Democrats would need several competitive races to go their way while also protecting seats they already hold.
North Carolina is one of the big ones, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is running against Republican Michael Whatley. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing Democrat Troy Jackson in another closely watched race.
I’m also watching Iowa, where Republican Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, and Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton. Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, which gives you an idea of how significant a Democratic victory there would be.
And then there are races Democrats need to defend, including Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is running against Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff has been polling ahead, but Georgia is a state where Democrats can’t afford to take anything for granted.
So what would a Democratic Senate actually mean?
For one thing, Trump would no longer have a Republican majority available to confirm his nominees. Democrats could block judicial appointments, cabinet nominees, and other presidential appointments that require Senate approval.
That matters enormously when we’re talking about federal judges who could remain on the bench for decades.
A Democratic Senate would also have the power to investigate the administration and call officials to testify. Combined with a Democratic House, that could mean a level of congressional scrutiny we haven’t seen during Trump’s second term.
There are limits, of course. Democrats would still face the Senate’s 60-vote threshold for most legislation, and Trump could veto bills that reach his desk.
But control of the Senate would give Democrats substantial power over the people Trump appoints and the decisions his administration is forced to answer for.
Substack has launched a dedicated midterms hub, bringing together election forecasts, key races to watch, and analysis from political writers and experts across the platform.
Governors: The races that could matter well beyond 2026
There are 36 governor’s races on the ballot tomorrow, and I think these deserve more attention than they typically receive in a midterm election.
For starters, governors have a tremendous amount of power over people’s everyday lives. They influence healthcare, education, state budgets, voting laws, and countless other issues.
But in the current political environment, their importance extends far beyond their own states.
We’ve seen governors challenge federal policies in court, resist certain actions by the Trump administration, and coordinate with other states on issues that have national consequences.
Think about disputes over federal funding, immigration enforcement, or the deployment of the National Guard. Who occupies a governor’s office can make a real difference in how those conflicts play out, sometimes affecting people well beyond that state’s borders.
And there’s another consideration that makes this year’s governor’s races especially significant: Many of the governors elected tomorrow will still be in office during the 2028 presidential election.
Governors have responsibilities related to the presidential election process, including certifying their states’ presidential electors. They don’t get to choose the winner, but their role in carrying out election laws can become particularly important when results are disputed.
We’ve already seen what happened after the 2020 election, when Trump and his allies attempted to overturn the results. Several Republican candidates running for governor this year have questioned or rejected those results themselves.
With the next presidential election just two years away, I think it’s worth paying close attention to who will be running these states when 2028 arrives.
The House and Senate will determine the balance of power in Washington for the next two years. But the governors elected tomorrow could play an important role in what happens during those two years and in the presidential election that follows.
What I’ll be watching on election night
There are a few major questions I’ll be looking to answer as results begin coming in.
First, are Democrats performing as well as the polling suggests, or are Republicans outperforming expectations?
Second, are we seeing a consistent national trend, or are individual states and districts producing very different results?
Third, what do the early results tell us about the battle for the House and Senate? Are Democrats winning the competitive races they need, or are Republicans holding on in places where the margins were expected to be close?
And finally, what surprises are emerging in races that haven’t received as much national attention?
I’ve put together a free 2026 midterm election guide highlighting many of the key races and what to watch for as the results come in.
One thing I want to emphasize is that polling is not a prediction of what will happen. It gives us an idea of where things stand, but ultimately, the voters decide.
There will almost certainly be surprises. Some races may be decided relatively quickly, while others could take days before we know the final outcome.
And as we have seen in previous elections, early vote totals don’t always tell us much about who will ultimately win.
That’s why it’s so important to look at the actual results, understand which votes have been counted, and avoid jumping to conclusions.
Join me live tomorrow night
I’ll be covering all of this and much more LIVE on election night, and I hope you’ll join me.
We’ll be following the results as they come in, breaking down the most important House, Senate, and governors’ races, and discussing what the outcomes mean for the next two years of Trump’s presidency.
I’ll also be going live right here on Substack ahead of our main election night livestream, so make sure you’re subscribed and have notifications enabled so you don’t miss it.
Our main election night coverage will be available on YouTube, Facebook, Substack, and more. We’ll be sending out an email tomorrow with links to all the places you can watch live, so keep an eye on your inbox.
This election could fundamentally change the balance of power in Washington. Whether Democrats take control of one chamber, both chambers, or Republicans manage to maintain their majorities, the results will have enormous consequences.
And whatever happens, we’ll be here to make sense of it.
Before we get to election night, I’m curious: What race are you going to be watching most closely tomorrow? And what do you expect the results to look like?
Leave me a comment below. I always enjoy reading your predictions, and we’ll see how they hold up once the votes start coming in.
Thanks for reading, and I hope you’ll join me live tomorrow.
— David
Eyes on NY, CT, OHIO, MN, MI, SC, FL AND TX...All of them. Wanting blue all over, needing it
The Senate has never had a Muslim as a member. I hope that El-Sayed in Michigan changes that.