This is what happens when Trump hires morons

No serious economist believes the growth numbers Trump’s team keeps promoting.

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Let’s talk about economic incompetence, because there are real consequences when people who do not understand basic economics are put in charge of shaping the narrative around the U.S. economy.

This week, one of Donald Trump’s longtime economic advisers, Kevin Hassett, again entertained the idea of 20 percent or even 25 percent GDP growth. This is not a one-off comment. Trump himself has repeatedly asked, publicly, why the United States cannot grow at those levels.

On CNBC, Carl Quintanilla pressed Hassett on what markets are supposed to do with numbers like that. Hassett’s answer was revealing, not because it clarified anything, but because it showed just how unwilling Trump’s team is to tell him the truth.

What Hassett actually admitted

When Hassett broke it down, the reality slipped out.

He pointed to productivity growth of roughly 2.5 to 3 percent, capital stock growth of about 1 percent, and labor growth somewhere between half a percent and 1 percent. Add that up, and you get an economy that can reasonably grow a bit north of 4 percent under very strong conditions.

Pretty far south of 20 percent.

Hassett never said 20 or 25 percent growth was realistic, because it is not. But instead of saying so plainly, he hedged, played coy, and pretended uncertainty about historical growth rates that any serious economist already knows.

That is what happens when advisers are more afraid of contradicting Trump than of misleading the public.

What normal GDP growth looks like

This is where it helps to zoom out and ground the conversation in reality.

For a large, wealthy, developed economy like the United States, 2 to 3 percent annual GDP growth is normal. That is what stability looks like. Growth in the range of 5 to 6 percent would be considered very strong, and it usually only happens in short bursts after a recession when the economy is bouncing back.

Numbers like 20 or 25 percent GDP growth do not represent success. They represent either a misunderstanding or a crisis.

Rich countries grow more slowly by design. Poorer countries can post higher growth rates because they are catching up. When a country starts with weak infrastructure, low productivity, and limited capital, building basic systems can produce huge gains quickly. This is where you could see 20 percent growth.

But the United States does not operate in that space.

Why big economies cannot grow like that

The U.S. already has advanced infrastructure, a massive consumer economy, and high productivity. There is no easy growth left to unlock.

That is why the U.S. typically grows at 2 to 3 percent. Germany grows closer to 1 to 2 percent. Japan often grows even more slowly; this is all normal for advanced economies.

To put Trump’s fantasy in perspective, 25 percent of U.S. GDP is roughly $7 trillion. That would be like adding the entire economies of Germany and France to the United States in a single year.

Think about what that would actually require.

That would mean tens of millions of new jobs appearing almost instantly, massive factory construction completed overnight (even though large industrial projects take five to seven years), explosive productivity gains without triggering inflation, etc.

That has never happened in a modern, stable economy.

When you do see huge GDP numbers

There are situations where you will see GDP growth numbers in the 20 percent range. They just are not what Trump pretends they are.

Sometimes it is rebound math. An economy collapses, then partially recovers. The recovery looks huge on paper, but it is just climbing out of a hole.

The United States saw this during COVID. In the third quarter of 2020, annualized GDP growth hit 34 percent. That sounds incredible until you remember that GDP had fallen 5 percent in the first quarter and 28 percent in the second quarter. The economy was not booming. It was reopening.

Other times, massive GDP growth is nominal, not real. Hyperinflation can make GDP look enormous even though productivity has not improved at all. Everything just costs more.

None of those scenarios apply to the United States right now.

What Trump’s numbers really signal

If the United States were to post 25 percent GDP growth without a prior collapse, it would not be a victory. It would be a red flag.

Economists would not be celebrating. They would be asking what broke, what distorted the data, or what extraordinary shock had occurred.

This is why it would be responsible for someone like Kevin Hassett to simply say, “That is not how this works.” But no one who works for Trump does anything responsibly unless they want to be fired.

Instead, the public gets fantasy numbers that make Trump sound bold while making the country sound deeply unserious.

What would actually be impressive

If the U.S. economy were to grow at 4 to 5 percent annualized, that would be extraordinary. That would be something to point to proudly. That would reflect real gains in productivity, investment, and labor participation.

But 20 percent GDP growth is not ambition, it is nonsense.

And the fact that it keeps being floated by people in positions of economic influence tells you everything you need to know about the quality of economic leadership on display.

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