EDITORIAL: Trump Doing EVERYTHING WRONG, But He STILL Might Win

Despite failure after failure by Donald Trump, he could still defeat Kamala Harris

Failed former President Donald Trump seems to be doing everything wrong in his bid to return to the White House. His fundraising is lagging, his running mate is unpopular, and his debate performance against Kamala Harris was an unhinged disaster. Yet, despite all of this, there's still a real possibility that Trump could win. How could this be? Let’s break it down.

Fundraising is the lifeblood of any political campaign, fueling everything from advertisements to ground operations. In August, Kamala Harris raised $361 million, nearly tripling Trump’s $130 million. On paper, this looks like a huge problem for Trump, but we’ve been here before. In 2016, Trump managed to beat Hillary Clinton with just half of her campaign funds. While money is important, it’s not everything.

In addition to her fundraising, Harris is also outworking Trump on the campaign trail. In just the last month, she’s held rallies in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada. The turnout for these rallies has been impressive, dwarfing the crowd sizes at Trump’s events. This shows a clear enthusiasm gap between Harris’s base and Trump’s dwindling support.

Even among Trump’s staunchest supporters, there’s a dip in enthusiasm. His favorability among independents and moderates has also plummeted. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is seeing a surge in approval. Since becoming the nominee, her approval rating has jumped from 39% to 45%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump’s approval hovers at 43%, with little sign of improvement.

Even within the Republican Party, where his influence was once nearly absolute, there are signs of trouble. Liz Cheney, a so-called “moderate” Republican who voted with Trump 93% of the time, has endorsed Harris. Her father, Dick Cheney, who has arguably been an even more destructive force than Trump on the world stage, has also endorsed Harris. Adam Kinzinger, another “moderate” who voted with Trump over 90% of the time, has not only endorsed Harris, but was also given a speaking slot at the DNC convention. Other prominent Republicans, including Mitt Romney and Trump’s own former Vice President, Mike Pence, as well as his national security advisor John Bolton, have withheld their endorsements.

The media often portrays these anti-Trump Republicans as “moderate,” but if you examine their voting history, you’ll find that they often have radical views that differ very little from those of the “extremists.” The difference is mostly in whether they support Trump’s attempt to stage a violent coup against the democratically elected president, suggesting that even some of the most hardened Republicans are just sick of Trump, making it much harder for him to generate the kind of excitement he had in 2016.

Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, is another obstacle for the campaign. As you might recall, Trump had to find a new Vice Presidential running mate after he incited a violent mob on January 6th that threatened to publicly execute Mike Pence. But Vance, who once compared Trump to Adolf Hitler, lacks the charisma necessary to energize the base. Tim Walz, on the other hand, has been an outstanding choice for the Harris campaign. Not only is Walz’s rhetoric effective, with the line about how “they’re just plain weird,” but he has a proven track record of progressive victories as Governor of Minnesota that he achieved with an even slimmer Democratic majority than Biden had at the beginning of his term. He’s also just a likable guy, and we see this reflected in the polling. According to USA Today, Vance’s favorability is just 36%, compared to 48% for Tim Walz, a 12-point gap. Vance brings nothing to the Trump ticket. He doesn’t inspire confidence or excitement, and he may even hurt Trump.

Despite all of these issues, the race remains close in key battleground states. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump is ahead in Arizona by 1.6% and in Georgia by 1.7%, while Harris leads by razor-thin margins in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. North Carolina is virtually tied. To be clear, Harris is doing far better than Joe Biden was in these critical battleground states, but Trump still has a path to victory.

The national polls don’t look much different. National polls can be misleading, because you can be ahead in national polls while still being on track to lose due to our convoluted, archaic electoral college system. But in some ways, they are still a good barometer for enthusiasm. Harris is ahead by just 2.8% on 538, 2.8% on the Silver Bulletin, and 1.9% on Real Clear Politics. This is a reversal from earlier in the campaign cycle when Trump seemed to be gaining ground against Joe Biden. The polls are fluid, but the trend is troubling for Trump.

The Trump campaign seemed totally unprepared for the possibility that Joe Biden might drop out. This is evident by Trump’s completely unhinged performance at last week’s debate. He relied on stale, racist attacks on Kamala, such as questioning the authenticity of her race. This is like a more convoluted version of Trump’s famous birther conspiracy about Barack Obama, but somehow even more dumb. It’s difficult to see how the Trump/Vance rhetoric will be convincing or inspiring to swing state voters, but the reality is that in spite of all the things going wrong for Trump– the fundraising struggles, the lack of enthusiasm, deadlocked battleground states, and unfavorable national polling–he could still win. 

So, how could Trump still win, despite everything? The answer lies in voter suppression and legal manipulation.

Trump and his allies have been laying the groundwork to suppress the vote in critical swing states. These efforts include restricting mail-in voting, reducing ballot drop boxes in Democratic areas, and purging voter rolls. We’ve already seen these tactics in action, and they could very well swing the election in Trump’s favor.

Election lawyer Marc Elias recently highlighted these efforts, noting their potential to significantly impact the outcome. In addition, Trump’s team is preparing legal strategies to challenge early voting procedures and ballot counting methods. By creating ambiguity and legal chaos, they hope to contest unfavorable results and, possibly, swing the Electoral College in their favor.

There’s also the fact that the US has relatively low voter turnout in general. In the 2020 election, about 61% of the voting eligible population cast a ballot. So while these voter suppression efforts are very real, we also need to contend with the fact that about 30-40% of eligible voters simply choose not to participate.

The 2024 election could very well come down to a few hundred thousand votes in just two or three states. Trump’s voter suppression efforts, combined with historically low voter turnout in the U.S., make the race far closer than it should be. Despite Trump’s poor debate performance, his lackluster fundraising, and his divisive running mate, this race is far from over. Voter suppression, legal chaos, and razor-thin margins in battleground states could still hand Trump a victory.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. No matter how chaotic Trump’s campaign appears, it’s essential for every eligible voter to make their voice heard. We’ve seen this play out before, and it’s terrifyingly close to happening again.