Trump will sacrifice ICE agents to save himself

Scapegoating is not a bug in authoritarian politics. It is a feature.

Before we get into it: if you’re receiving this via email, thank you. You’re already subscribed. If you’re not, now is the time.

Right now, if you are an ICE agent or a Border Patrol officer deployed to Minneapolis or other cities under Trump’s deportation agenda, you might feel untouchable.

People have been killed. Agents have been quietly reassigned. There have been no charges, no serious investigations, and no meaningful accountability. The administration closes ranks. The message is simple and unmistakable: you are protected.

That protection is real. For now.

The problem is that in authoritarian-leaning political systems, protection is not rooted in loyalty or morality. It is rooted in convenience. When the political math changes, the rules change with it.

Donald Trump is not defending these officers because he believes they behaved impeccably or because he holds some deep commitment to due process. He is defending them because, at this moment, it is politically useful to do so. That is a very different kind of protection, and it expires quickly.

In Minnesota alone, multiple civilians have been killed by federal immigration agents in just the last month. We have seen protests in the streets. We have seen calls for impeachment. We have seen threats to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security. And in multiple cases, video evidence directly contradicts the administration’s public narrative.

That is the point where an operation becomes politically radioactive.

And now we are seeing movement.

Greg Bovino is out. Tom Homan is in. That is not a coincidence. It is a signal.

The administration is still defending the agents, but the pressure is building. At some point, they may decide they need to demonstrate that “checks and balances” still exist, even if only for show. When that moment comes, they will not go after the policymakers. They will not go after the architects of the policy. They will look for a sacrificial lamb.

That is how these systems work.

You find one agent, or a small handful, label them “rogue,” hold a dramatic press conference, declare that accountability has been restored, and throw the book at them. The system does not change. Impunity largely remains. But the individuals chosen to absorb the blame end up in prison, while the people who ordered the operations walk away untouched.

If you think that sounds abstract, it is not. This is standard operating procedure in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes. Security forces are empowered to do the dirty work. When international pressure mounts or public outrage grows too loud, those same forces are scapegoated to protect the leadership.

Scapegoating is not a bug in authoritarian politics. It is a feature.

We are already hearing this logic creep into the rhetoric. Homan has begun publicly emphasizing “professionalism,” warning that ICE and CBP officers who do not meet that standard will be “dealt with.” This is not a moral awakening. It is not a change in values. It is an early signal that someone may need to be thrown under the bus.

History is full of examples. Latin American dictatorships that relied on death squads later prosecuted low-level officers when the optics became unbearable. Leadership remained untouched. Russia, Turkey, and Egypt empower security services to crush opposition, then selectively purge or prosecute officers when it becomes politically useful.

The message is always the same: loyalty flows upward. Accountability flows downward.

So if you are an ICE agent telling yourself that nothing will ever happen because others “got away with it,” you may be right. But what happens if you are wrong? And what happens if you are wrong in the worst possible way?

If Trump decides he needs to prove that guardrails exist, he will not sacrifice himself. He will not sacrifice Stephen Miller. He is not going to sacrifice Kristi Noem. He will sacrifice you, if doing so helps him survive politically.

That is the brutal reality of systems built on impunity. They do not offer real protection. They offer temporary cover until you become a liability.

Look at how quickly they flipped on Greg Bovino. That happened in under 48 hours.

In authoritarian politics, you are only untouchable until the optics flip. And right now, the optics are flipping.

---

We’re reaching over 150 million people every month across YouTube, podcasts, Substack, and beyond. But algorithms can change. Platforms can fold. And when that happens, this newsletter is how we stay connected.

If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, please consider joining.
If you’re already paid on one platform, consider supporting us on both Substack and our website.

You can subscribe on our website and right here on Substack.

And if you’re really on fire, consider gifting a subscription—we’ve got thousands on our waiting list ready to read, watch, and fight back.

Let’s keep building.

—David

PS: Can’t contribute right now? No problem. You can support us for free by subscribing on YouTube, listening to our audio podcast on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or become a free subscriber to this very Substack. Every bit counts.